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Egypt Power Report Q3 2010
Business Monitor International, July 2010, Pages: 57
The Egypt Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Egypt's power industry.
The new Egypt Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 10.34% of the Middle East and Africa (MEA)’s regional power generation by 2014, with a modest theoretical generation surplus. BMI’s MEA power generation estimate for 2009 is 1,225 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 1.9% over the previous year. We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 1,572TWh by 2014, representing a rise of 23.2% between 2010 and the end of the period. BMI estimates thermal power generation in 2009 was 1,064TWh, accounting for 86.9% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 1,293TWh, implying 18.8% growth in 2010- 2014 that reduces slightly the market share of thermal generation to 82.3% – thanks in part to environmental concerns that should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Egypt’s thermal generation in 2009 was an estimated 113TWh, or 10.63% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for 10.54% of regional thermal generation.
For Egypt in 2009, gas was the dominant fuel, accounting for an estimated 50.0% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by oil at 43.1% and hydro with a 5.4% share. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 1,075mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2014, representing 19.3% growth over the period since 2010. Egypt’s estimated 2009 market share of 8.76% is set to fall to 8.75% by 2014. Egypt’s estimated 18.1TWh of hydro generation in 2009 is forecast to reach 22.1TWh by 2014, with its share of the MEA hydro market easing from an estimated 41.56% to 35.44% over the period.
Egypt now ranks equal third with Saudi Arabia in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment Ratings, reflecting its market size and above-average proportion of renewables (hydro-power) use. While the regulatory environment is not particularly attractive, the power sector is modestly competitive, with some progress towards privatisation. Egypt has this quarter caught back up with Saudi Arabia, and has the potential to pull clear during the next few quarters.
BMI now forecasts Egyptian real GDP growth averaging 5.12% a year between 2010 and 2014, with a 2010 assumption of 4.60%. Population is expected to expand from 77.7mn to 84.1mn, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita to increase by 57% and 16% respectively. Power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 117TWh in 2009 to 147TWh by 2014, while theoretical surplus capacity will be 15TWh by 2014, assuming 4.1% average annual growth in electricity generation.
Between 2010 and 2019 we forecast an increase in Egyptian electricity generation of 43.7%, towards the middle of the range for MEA. This equates to 21.7% during 2014-2019, up from 18.1% in 2010-2014. PED growth is set to be 21.1% in 2014-2019, up from the 18.1% expected for 2010-2014, representing 43.0% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 51% in hydro-power use in 2010-2019 is an important element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 38% between 2010 and 2019. More details of the long-term BMI power forecasts can be found later in this report.
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