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Kuwait Power Report Q3 2010
Business Monitor International, July 2010, Pages: 48
The Kuwait Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Kuwait's power industry.
The new Kuwait Power Report from BMI forecasts that by 2014 the country will account for 3.82% of Middle East and Africa (MEA) regional power generation, with shortages possible at times of peak demand. BMI’s MEA power generation estimate for 2009 is 1,225 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 1.9% over the previous year. We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 1,572TWh by 2014, representing a rise of 23.2% between 2010 and the end of the period.
Thermal power generation in 2009 is estimated by BMI at 1,064TWh, accounting for 86.9% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 1,293TWh, implying 18.8% growth in 2010- 2014 that reduces slightly the market share of thermal generation to 82.3% – thanks in part to environmental concerns that should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Kuwait’s thermal generation in 2009 was an estimated 53TWh, or 4.98% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for 4.64% of thermal generation.
Oil was the dominant fuel in Kuwait in 2009, accounting for an estimated 55.0% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by gas at 45.0%. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 1,075mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2014, representing 19.3% growth over the period since 2010. Kuwait’s estimated 2009 market share of 3.21% is set to climb to 3.49% by 2014.
Kuwait is now ranked ninth above only Algeria in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment Rating, thanks to its modest market size, state control of the power sector and a particularly low proportion of renewables use. The power sector is not competitive, with no appreciable progress towards privatisation. The regulatory environment is unattractive. Kuwait is seven points behind Nigeria, so is unlikely to challenge for promotion over the next few quarters.
BMI is now forecasting real GDP growth averaging 2.06% per annum between 2010 and 2014, with the 2010 assumption being an increase of 1.70%. Population is expected to expand from 3.20mn to 3.50mn over the period, with GDP per capita forecast to rise by 20% and power consumption per capita expected to increase by 4% from an already high base. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 48.5TWh in 2009 to 55.7TWh by the end of the forecast period, resulting in a broadly balanced market that, at times of peak demand, will struggle to provide adequate supply without imports – assuming 2.5% average annual growth in electricity generation.
Between 2010 and 2019 we are forecasting an increase in Kuwaiti electricity generation of 33.2%, which is among the lowest in the MEA region. This equates to 18.9% in the 2014-2019 period, up from 12.1% in 2010-2014. PED growth is set to increase from 25.0% in 2010-2014 to 25.8%, representing 57.2% for the entire forecast period. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise 33% between 2010 and 2019. More details of the longer-term BMI power forecasts can be found at the end of this report.
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