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Uganda Defence and Security Report Q3 2010
Business Monitor International, July 2010, Pages: 62
Business Monitor International's Uganda Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Uganda's defence and security industry.
Concerns are rising that Uganda’s 2011 elections may be marked by violence, while some have called the army’s neutrality into question. Analysts have asserted that violent outbreaks are possible, partly because the opposition feels that it has been marginalised in the political process. General Aronda Nyakairima, the chief of the Defence Forces, has stated that the army would step in to ‘deal with’ violence triggered by political disputes, and urged Ugandans to use legal means to resolve them. Opposition leaders have made statements in the past which have been interpreted as suggesting that constitutional avenues to changing the country are not functioning. They have also stated that the electoral commission (EC) is biased and discredited.
Gen Nyakairima has said that violence would not be allowed to break out and sought to cool fears of conflict. Felix Kulayigye, a member of the Ugandan People’s Defence Force (UPDF), as the army is known, wrote on Ugandan website The New Vision in June that widespread violence and vandalism were the inevitable result of riots in the country, and that the UPDF has a responsibility to step in to prevent them occurring.
Uganda continues to commit troops beyond its borders. Ten Ugandan troops were killed in the CAR in May 2010, Reuters reported the following month. The Ugandan soldiers had been searching out remaining Lord’s Resistance Army units in the CAR. However, in June 2010, Lt. Gen. Edward Katumba Wamala, the commander of Ugandan ground forces, said that the army would pull out of Somalia once stability has returned. It remains to be seen which definition of ‘stability achieved’ the Ugandan government and army use. Maintaining a force in Somalia is expensive, particularly for a relatively poor country like Uganda. The additional support from other African states will be valuable, but a timeline for withdrawal, and a strategy for Somalia’s future, are far from apparent. Uganda will both be keen to avoid getting bogged down in an intractable conflict for several years, but equally will look to enhance stability in the Horn of Africa, an increasingly volatile but hugely strategically important area. It may also look to benefit from a visible expression of its ability to project power beyond its own borders, as a sign of what it sees as its growing status as a regional power.
Defence spending is on the rise in Africa. While global military spending has fallen by 35% since the end of the Cold War, in sub-Saharan Africa it has risen by more than a third, according to SPIRI. Indeed, Uganda’s military outlay had doubled between 1997 and 1998.
Meanwhile, the threat posed by militias and pirates has caused governments, companies and NGOs in Africa to invest in military equipment and protection. Industry insiders argue that defence is a growth sector for Africa and Uganda may look to capitalise in the longer term, though for the time being it remains largely an importer and consumer.
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