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Canada Food and Drink Report Q3 2010
Business Monitor International, July 2010, Pages: 59
Business Monitor International's Canada Food and Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, food and drink associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Canada's food and drink industry.
The Canadian consumer sector offered steady growth in the years leading up to the global financial crisis and has also proved to be more resilient than that of many developed markets in the years following the economic meltdown of 2008. The country is expected to continue outperforming many of its developed market peers in the four years to 2014, which bodes well for the country's food and drink sector. However, given the country's export-reliant economy and our projections for a secondary slowdown in the world's major importers, China and the US, there are risks to the downside for this view.
Headline Industry Data
- 2010 per capita food consumption = +1%; forecast to 2014 = +6%
- 2010 alcoholic drink sales = +3%; forecast to 2014 = +20%
- 2010 soft drink sales = +3% ; forecast to 2014 = +22%
- 2010 mass grocery retail sales = +7%; forecast to 2014 = +41%
- Key Macroeconomic Data
- 2010 Real GDP growth = +3.1% (2009, -2.5%)
- 2010 Consumer Price Index = +1.2% chg y-o-y (period average) (2009, +0.3%)
- 2010 Unemployment Rate = 7.9% (period average) (2009, 8.3%)
Key Company Trends And Developments
Investment In Capacity – In spite of the difficult operating conditions, Canadian food and drink firms are continuing to invest to drive future growth. In January 2010, Canada Bread announced it would invest almost US$100mn to establish a larger facility for its fresh bakery operations. Meanwhile, Canada's leading food processor Maple Leaf Foods has inaugurated a state-of-the-art culinary food innovation centre, ThinkFOOD!, in Mississauga, Ontario.
Consolidation of North American convenience – Canada's largest convenience retailer Alimentation Couche-Tard is currently a driving force behind the consolidation of the North American retail sector. In mid-2010 the firm continued this expansion drive by launching a bid for US-based Casey’s General Stores.
Key Risks to Outlook
Secondary slowdown – The key risk to our favourable demand outlook is the prospect of a second decline in US economic activity which would have major ripple effects in Canada.
Overheating housing market – A second risk is the possible overheating of the domestic housing markets. Any downwards movement could put pressure on the banking sector and weigh on consumer confidence, with negative implications for our food and drink consumption forecasts.
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