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The China Bank Lending Survey - Issue 7 2010
Pacific Epoch, Aug 2010, Pages: 5
The China Bank Lending Survey is published by Pacific Epoch in order to provide objective and predictive information to institutional investors and corporations doing business in China. Each month, 8-10 question interviews are conducted with executives from roughly 100 banks to help better gauge future lending sentiment. In this issue: China’s banking regulator continues to harbor concerns about risks to the country’s banking sector from bad debt. Since imposing restrictions on speculative real estate investment in April, the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) has repeatedly called upon banks to exercise caution in lending, especially to potentially risky sectors such as real estate, local government financing platforms and industries suffering from overcapacity. Recently, investors reacted with concern to reports that the CBRC had ordered banks to conduct stress tests that assumed housing prices could fall by as much as 60 percent in some cities. The CBRC responded by assuring investors that the stress test scenarios represented worst-case scenarios, not its actual outlook. The regulator said that it would continue instructing lenders to “resolutely” curb speculation and “strictly” manage mortgage loans. Official July lending numbers will be released this week. Back in June, net new bank lending fell to RMB 603.4 billion, down from RMB 639.4 billion in May and RMB 774 billion in April. Bank lending in China is traditionally weighted toward the first half of the year. In order to gain a better picture of banks’ current lending picture and outlook, we spoke to 100 contacts in charge of corporate lending at 100 branches of Big Four and national commercial banks (50 contacts from the Big Four and 50 from national commercial banks), located in 13 provinces and municipalities across east, north and central China, during the last few days of July and the first few days of August. The respondents either already knew their final bank lending totals for July or could reliably project them. These banks account for more than 70% of new lending nationwide each month.
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