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Australia Telecommunications Report Q3 2010
Business Monitor International, July 2010, Pages: 103
This Australia Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Australia's telecommunications industry.
The Q3 2010 update on the Australian Telecommunications Market incorporates new official figures on the size and state of the country’s broadband internet sector at the end of 2009. It also incorporates new mobile subscriber data, published by Australia’s second and third largest mobile network operators, for Q110. Based on the new data, we have revised our five-year mobile and broadband subscriber forecasts and our five-year forecasts for mobile average revenue per user (ARPU).
By the end of March 2010, we estimate there were almost 26.4mn Australian mobile subscribers. This would reflect q-o-q growth of 3%, stronger than the 2.6% q-o-q rise in the previous quarter and the 1.6% q-o-q rise in the corresponding quarter in 2009. The country’s second largest mobile operator Optus, which is owned by Singapore’s SingTel, reported a significant increase in postpaid subscribers in the first quarter of 2010. Optus also reported strong prepaid customer gains. This is significant, given that Optus deducted a large number of inactive prepaid users from its reported total in the third and fourth quarters of 2009. One explanation for the strong prepaid user growth reported by Optus in Q110 could be the growing number of MVNO customers on the operator’s network. Meanwhile, third-ranked Vodafone Hutchison Australia (VHA), which was formed by the recent merger of Vodafone Australia and Hutchison’s 3 Australia, reported a net increase of 490,000 mobile customers in the first three months of 2010. Although the operator has continued to expand its contract customer base, it is thought that Q110 also saw a large increase in the number of prepaid users.
The authors predict that Australia’s mobile market will experience full-year growth of 10.4% in 2010, resulting in more than 28mn subscribers at the end of the year. This would be equivalent to a penetration rate of 125.6%. Meanwhile, the latest official figures suggest that Australia had more than 8.17mn broadband subscribers at the end of 2009. In 2009, Australia’s broadband subscriber base expanded by over 23%, almost as high as the 27% growth rate recorded in 2008. At the end of 2009, xDSL connections still accounted for the largest number of broadband subscriptions, at 46% of the total. However, mobile wireless connections accounted for a further 31.1% of total internet subscriptions, and it is this sector that has seen the strongest growth in recent months. One development that is expected to have a major impact on the development of Australia’s broadband over the next few years is the implementation of the country’s National Broadband Network (NBN) project. The project’s implementation is still the subject of much negotiation between the government and Australia’s network operators – including national incumbent operator Telstra. In the long term, however, the NBN project aims to ensure that almost all Australians have access to a universal set of broadband services.
Australia receives a higher Country Risk rating this quarter. Although this has lifted Australia’s overall score, the country’s position in our ratings table remains unchanged. However, although we recently revised our 2010 real GDP growth forecast upwards to 2.3% (from 1.9%), we maintain our belief that 2011 could see a return to weaker growth.
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