Australia Shipping Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, August 2010, Pages: 98
Australia Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, shipping associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Australia's shipping industry.
BMI's core view that mining companies will seek to gain ownership of freight networks such as railway lines and ports to complement their business operations and ensure their supply chain has once again been highlighted by mining companies BHP Billiton and Hancock Coal pledging to invest in new coal terminals at Australia's Abbot Point. The expansion project, like others at Australia's coal export terminals, has been driven by growing Chinese demand, which has seen vessels form queues outside New South Wales ports as demand intensifies and the country's port infrastructure struggles to cope. Although BMI believes that China's coal demand is a phenomenon that will last throughout the mid term, we are worried about the effect that a fall in Chinese coal demand in the short term will have on Australia's port expansions, as developers faced with falling coal throughput volumes may question the need for further investment.
By 2011, capacity at the port is set to be lifted from the current 21mn tonnes per year to 50mn tonnes per year. BHP Billiton and Hancock Coal plan to build two new terminals at the port, a project that when completed will see Abbot Point offering a coal export capacity of 110mn tonnes per annum. The port's management hopes to develop Abbot Point into the largest coal port in Australia and the world within 10 years, which would require significant expansion work. According to data from Ports Australia, Abbot Point is ranked fourth out of Australia's top coal export ports, handling 14.4mn tonnes of coal in the 2008/2009 financial year.
We expect cargo handled at two of Australia's key ports, the Port of Melbourne (POM) and Port of Sydney (POS), have grown at a slow to moderate rate in the financial year 2009/10. In general tonnage terms, POM will be out in front, with 5.2% growth to 30.61mn tonnes, starting to recover from the 2008/09 downturn when the port was not able to sidestep the effects of the international recession (volumes fell by 5.6% to 29.1mn tonnes in 2008/09). 2009/10 total volume at POS is expected to gain a more subdued 2.5% to 28.49mn tonnes. In 2008/09, POS volumes dropped by 4.7% to 27.8mn tonnes. At the Port of Melbourne container movements will grow 7.4% to 2.320mn 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) this year, while at Port of Sydney they will be up by 4% to 1.855mn TEUs. While POS's growth has been consistently positive in recent years, POM has been more volatile, and more closely linked to international shipping fluctuations; 2008/09 box throughput at Port of Melbourne declined by 4.3%.
Affected by the global downturn, Australia's total trade fell by an estimated 4.44% in real terms in 2009 and we see a 4.9% rebound in 2010, followed by 4.2% decline in 2011. This year imports will grow more strongly than exports in real terms (6.0% vs 3.2%). The desired export-led recovery may not materialise for some time yet, as we expect Chinese demand to slow at the end of 2010 and into 2011, as Beijing tries to deflate a property bubble we fear has emerged. In doing so, we see China's construction sector decrease its demand for steel, and, therefore, this will knock on to China's demand for iron ore and coal. This will, in turn, will hit Australia, which caters for China's commodity demands.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Australia Shipping SWOT
Global Overview
Container Overview
Dry Bulk Overview
Liquid Bulk Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Market Overview
Port of Sydney
Overview
Terminals, Storage And Equipment
Expansions And Developments
Multi-Modal Links
Port of Melbourne
Overview
Terminals, Storage and Equipment
Expansions and Developments
Multi-Modal Links
Industry Forecast
Table: Major Port Data, 2007-2014
Table: Trade Overview, 2007-2014
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2007-2014
Table: Main Import Partners, 2002-2008
Table: Main Export Partners, 2002-2008
Company Profiles
A.P. MØLLER-MAERSK
Mediterranean Shipping Company
CMA CGM
Neptune Orient Lines (& APL)
Hapag-Lloyd
Evergreen Line
China Ocean Shipping (Group) Company (COSCO)
CSAV Shipping
China Shipping (CSCL)
Hanjin Shipping
Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL)
Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (NYK)
- A.P. MØLLER-MAERSK
- Mediterranean Shipping Company
- CMA CGM
- Neptune Orient Lines (& APL)
- Hapag-Lloyd
- Evergreen Line
- China Ocean Shipping (Group) Company (COSCO)
- CSAV Shipping
- China Shipping (CSCL)
- Hanjin Shipping
- Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL)
- Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (NYK)
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