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Canada Shipping Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Aug 2010, Pages: 98
Canada Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, shipping associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Canada's shipping industry.
The recovery in Canadian consumer spending is running ahead of expectations, and that is making itself felt at the country's ports. The Vancouver Fraser Port Authority reported at the end of June that Port Metro Vancouver (PMV) registered a 41.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) surge in containerised imports to 108,666 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in May 2010. This is the port's highest level of imports since September 2008, and has been attributed to a sharp increase in shipping demand. PMV is one of North America's busiest ports, with 25 major marine cargo terminals that handle more than 70mn tonnes of cargo annually.
The outlook for the country's port and shipping sector was good in H210. The political scene was stable and the minority government of Stephen Harper was expected to remain on course with business-friendly economic policies. The administration will be focusing on reducing the fiscal deficit through a combination of spending restraint and improved tax revenues. Most importantly, perhaps, the Canadian economy seemed to be on a 'better than US' recovery course. Following last year's recession, when GDP fell by 2.6%, and based on a strong revival of consumer demand, BMI lifted its 2010 growth forecast for the country to 3.1% (up from 2.7% earlier).
BMI is projecting an increase in volume at Port Metro Vancouver (PMV) in 2010 of 4.7% following the 11.0% contraction during the slump last year. Going forward we believe growth will be comparatively strong, with the annual average over the 2010-2014 period coming out at 3.2%, comfortably above the general growth rate of the Canadian economy. At Port of Montreal (POM) we see this year's volume gaining by 11.7% (this follows a 9.3% drop in 2009). Average growth of volume at POM across the forecast period will be 7.1%, strongly above the general GDP growth rate. The box handling outlook is good for both ports, although growth will be stronger on the eastern seaboard (Montreal) than on the western seaboard (Vancouver).
In real terms, we expect Canada's total trade (imports plus exports) to recover this year, following the steep 13.7% fall in 2009, caused by the US and global recession. 2010 growth will be 7.5% - clearly it will take a few years before pre-2009 trade levels can be re-established. Imports will lead the way this year, with 8% growth in real terms, reflecting the consumer recovery at home; exports will grow by 7.0%. Canada will remain highly dependent on the health of the US economy, its main trading partner. The main downside risk for the Canadian ports and shipping sector comes from its powerful southern neighbour, the US. Roughly half of Canada's imports come from the US, and two-thirds of Canadian exports are shipped there. Therefore, if the expected 'double-dip' growth slowdown in the US in 2011 turns out to be more severe than expected then there will be an very direct negative impact on the Canadian economy and on shipping and port handling demand.
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