Kazakhstan Food and Drink Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, August 2010, Pages: 50
Kazakhstan Food and Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, food and drink associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Kazakhstan's food and drink industry.
Industry View
Kazakhstan is easily our favourite Central Asian consumer market. Its growth over the coming years will be supported by a positive economic outlook, with food and drinks values not nearly as affected by the 2009 global financial crisis as those of its regional counterparts. The considerable market potential, which has already been recognised by a number of foreign players – in both food and drinks and mass grocery retail (MGR) industries – will continue to ensure dynamism through foreign direct investment (FDI). The government’s drive to diversify the oil-dependent economy also bodes well for the market’s longer-term growth, with private consumption set to be a key driver of value increase.
Headline Industry Data
2010 per capita food consumption = +3.3%, forecast to 2014: +41.5%
2010 alcoholic drinks sales = +4.9%; forecast to 2014= +41.5%
2010 soft drinks sales = +4.6%; forecast to 2014= +51.1%
Key Company Trends
Consolidation of Fragmented Industries – In June 2010, the French and Russian dairy majors, Danone and Unimilk respectively, were poised to combine their operations in Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Although the companies have direct manufacturing presence in Kazakhstan, the combination of their global branding and local expertise will considerably increase their competitive potential. Danone-Unimilk (in which the former will have a 57.5% share) is expected to capture over 20% of Russia’s large dairy market. While the dairy industry in Kazakhstan remains largely fragmented, further consolidation is likely in the coming years, especially as larger players explore the power of marketing and the development of modern retail channels.
Key Risks to Outlook
Shortcomings of Overall Operating Environment – While foreign investment into relatively nascent sectors of the economy will help shield Kazakhstan's economy from future fluctuations in energy prices, the authorities will also need to address certain shortcomings of the current operating environment. For example, while Kazakhstan boasts one of the more investment-friendly regimes within the CIS, more efforts are required in terms of opening up of the non-resource sectors and of combating corruption.
Shift Towards Doing Business with Europe – Kazakhstan's growing economic and political clout may allow it to expand export routes away from Russia further down the line. We therefore expect to see new trade relations emerging, with the EU likely to take a greater share of Kazakh exports and vice versa, impacting product mix, although this is more of a longer-term scenario.
BMI Industry View
SWOT Analysis
Kazakhstan Food Industry SWOT
Kazakhstan Drinks Industry SWOT
Kazakhstan Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Business Environment
BMI’s Core Global Industry Views
Table: BMI Food & Drink Core Views
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Kazakhstan – Economic Activity
Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Outlook
Food
Industry Forecast Scenario
Food Consumption
Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data and Forecasts
Trade
Table: Food & Drink Trade Balance – Historical Data and Forecasts
Industry Developments
Market Overview
Food Processing
Canned Food
Confectionery
Agriculture
Dairy
Drink
Industry Forecast Scenario
Alcoholic Drinks
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Indicators – Historical Data and Forecasts
Soft Drinks
Table: Soft Drinks Indicators – Historical Data and Forecasts
Industry Developments
Market Overview
Alcoholic Drinks
Soft Drinks
Hot Drinks
Mass Grocery Retail
Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry Developments
Market Overview
Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Players In Kazakhstan’s Food & Drink Sector, 2008
Table: Key Players In Kazakhstan’s MGR Sector, 2008
Company Analysis
Food
Ardager Agricultural Financial Corporation
Nestlé/Kosmis
Drink
Heineken
Carlsberg
Coca-Cola Içecek
Mass Grocery Retail
Vester
BMI Methodology
Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings
Table: Returns
Table: Risks
Weighting
Table: Weightings
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary
Food & Drink
Mass Grocery Retail
BMI Food & Drink Forecasting And Sources
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sources
- Ardager Agricultural Financial Corporation
- Nestlé/Kosmis
- Heineken
- Carlsberg
- Coca-Cola Içecek
- Vester
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