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Russia Defence and Security Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Aug 2010, Pages: 107
Russia Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Russia's defence and security industry.
Russia published a new version of The Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation in February 2010 to replace the earlier 2000 edition. From a procurement and expenditure point of view, however, the critical plan, The State Programme of Armaments (GPV-2015), remains in place. The modernisation plan for the years 2006-2015 includes new equipment, upgrades and maintenance programmes for which spending is estimated at RUB5,000bn (US$164bn).
Russia has traditionally been an exporter of military hardware but not an importer. Its increasing multinational involvements are leading to small changes at least. The most significant to date has been the announcement in February of the plan to buy one, and possibly four, Mistral class amphibious assault ships from France. These vessels cost up to US$750mn each.
In April, Russia participated in the Nuclear Security Summit hosted by US President Barack Obama. At the same time, Russia and the US signed to dispose of plutonium from nuclear weapons. Externally, the principal security issue in recent months has been the political troubles in neighbouring Kyrgyzstan. Russia was the first country to recognise the new regime in that country and when violence broke out in the south of the country was asked to provide military assistance. At the time of writing,
Russia has declined the request, preferring to balance its interests in the region. There has also been a reluctance to act unilaterally on this occasion in favour of working through multilateral channels. At the same time the unrest in Chechnya remains unresolved and represents on ongoing, albeit low level, conflict that Russia has been unable to bring to any conclusion.
Corruption remains a major problem internally, with bribery seen as endemic among the government agencies.
Economically, Russia is experiencing a strong export led recovery from the economic contraction that occurred during 2009. We have again lifted our forecast for Russian real GDP growth in 2010, this time from 3.4% to 4.7% on the basis of a strong lift in both demand for energy resources and also energy prices. Nonetheless, Russia’s reliance on the energy sector remains a key macroeconomic risk factor. Being essentially a recovery from last year’s crisis, the high growth rate is unlikely to be maintained. We are forecasting that real GDP growth will slow a little to 4.4% in 2011.'
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