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Argentina Power Report Q3 2010
Business Monitor International, July 2010, Pages: 55
Business Monitor International's Argentina Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Argentina's power industry.
The newly published Argentina Power Report from BMI forecasts that by 2014 the country will account for 10.48% of Latin American regional power generation. BMI’s Latin America power generation assumption for 2009 is 1,109 terawatt hours (TWh), a decrease of 1.9% from the previous year. We are forecasting growth in regional generation to 1,302TWh by 2014, a rise of 12.9% in 2010-2014.
Latin American thermal power generation in 2009 is assumed by BMI to have been 409TWh, accounting for 36.9% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 454TWh, implying 9.4% growth during 2010-2014, trimming the market share of thermal generation to 34.9% – thanks to environmental concerns that are promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear power. Argentina’s thermal generation in 2009 was an estimated 77.7TWh, or 19.0% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for 18.1% of thermal generation.
For Argentina, in 2009 gas was the dominant fuel, accounting for an estimated 54.0% of PED, followed by oil at 31.5%, hydro at 11.2%, nuclear at 1.6% and coal at 0.5%. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 748mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2014, representing 13.8% growth during 2010-2014. Argentina’s estimated 2009 market share of 11.88% is set to fall to 11.18% by the end of the forecast period. Argentina’s estimated 7.0TWh of nuclear demand in 2009 is forecast to reach 7.5TWh by 2014, with its share of the regional nuclear market set to fall from an estimated 23.33% to 23.08%.
Argentina is now ranked fourth behind Colombia in BMI’s updated power sector Business Environment Ratings, scoring two fewer points than third-placed Colombia in spite of its market size and low energy import dependency. Peru is four points behind and poses no immediate threat, but Colombia has the potential to pull further away from Argentina over the next few quarters. The Argentinean power sector is competitive, with more progress towards privatisation than seen in most other countries. The regulatory environment has deteriorated in the last few years, thanks to government intervention in energy pricing, but remains more attractive than in other parts of the region.
BMI is now forecasting Argentinean average annual real GDP growth of 1.98% between 2010 and 2014, with an increase of 1.50% assumed in 2010. The population is expected to expand from 40.3mn to 42.4mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase by 63% and 4% respectively during the forecast period. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 118TWh in 2009 to 130TWh by the end of the forecast period, providing a theoretical surplus easing from an estimated 7TWh in 2009 to 6TWh in 2014, assuming 1.8% average annual growth in electricity generation during 2010-2014.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Argentinean electricity generation of 20.6%, which is one of the lowest for the Latin America region. This equates to 11.6% in the 2014-2019 period, up from 8.0% in 2010-2014. PED growth is set to ease from 9.3% in 2010-2014 to 8.4% in 2014-2019, representing 18.5% for the entire forecast period. An expected increase of 21% in hydro-power use during 2010-2019 is one key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 14% between 2010 and 2019, with nuclear consumption set to increase by 55%. More details of the longerterm BMI power forecasts can be found at the end of this report.
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