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Chile Power Report Q3 2010
Business Monitor International, July 2010, Pages: 56
Business Monitor International's Chile Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Chile's power industry.
The newly published Chile Power Report from BMI forecasts that by 2014 the country will account for 5.56% of Latin American regional power generation. BMI’s Latin America power generation assumption for 2009 is 1,109 terawatt hours (TWh), a decrease of 1.9% from the previous year. We are forecasting growth in regional generation to 1,302TWh by 2014, a 2010-2014 rise of 12.9%.
Latin American thermal power generation in 2009 is assumed by BMI to have been 409TWh, accounting for 36.9% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 454TWh, implying 9.4% growth during 2010-2014, trimming the market share of thermal generation to 34.9% – thanks to environmental concerns that are promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear power. In 2009, Chile’s thermal generation was an estimated 30.5TWh, or 7.47% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for 7.80% of thermal generation.
Oil was the dominant fuel in 2009, accounting for an estimated 55.9% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by hydro at 19.2%, gas at 9.5% and coal at 11.9%. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 748mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2014, representing 13.8% growth during 2010-2014. Chile’s estimated 2009 market share of 4.66% is set to rise to 5.09% by 2014. There is no existing nuclear power generating capacity in Chile, but there is growing support for a small-scale project to diversify further the country’s electricity supply. As yet, there are no firm plans to build nuclear installations.
Chile is ranked second behind only Brazil in BMI’s updated power sector Business Environment Ratings, reflecting its power consumption growth prospects, privatisation progress, competitive landscape and regulatory framework. Country risk factors are generally supportive and the four-point gap between the respective scores of Chile and Colombia means that a challenge is unlikely over the near term. BMI is now forecasting Chilean average annual real GDP growth of 3.98% between 2010 and 2014, with an increase of 5.20% assumed for 2010. The population is expected to expand from 17.1mn to 18.1mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase by 37% and 10% respectively. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 54.8TWh in 2009 to 65.4TWh by the end of the forecast period. This results in a small theoretical supply surplus, assuming average annual growth (2010-2014) in electricity generation of 4.0%.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Chilean electricity generation of 42.5%, aboveaverage for the Latin America region. This equates to 23.5% in the 2014-2019 period, up from 15.3% in 2010-2014. PED growth is set to fall from 21.5% in 2010-2014 to 16.7%, representing 41.8% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 27% in hydro-power use during 2010-2019 is one key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 42% between 2010 and 2019. More details of the longer-term BMI power forecasts can be found later in this report.
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