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Colombia Power Report Q3 2010
Business Monitor International, July 2010, Pages: 50
Business Monitor International's Colombia Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Colombia's power industry.
In this updated report, BMI forecasts that Colombia will account for 4.93% of Latin American regional power generation by 2014, with a theoretical generation surplus that may still require imports on occasion, particularly if drought conditions impact the vital hydro-power segment. BMI’s Latin America power generation assumption for 2009 is 1,109 terawatt hours (TWh), a decrease of 1.9% from the previous year. We are forecasting growth in regional generation to 1,302TWh by 2014, a 2010-2014 rise of 12.9%.
Latin American thermal power generation in 2009 is assumed by BMI to have been 409TWh, accounting for 36.9% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 454TWh, implying 9.4% growth during 2010-2014, trimming the market share of thermal generation to 34.9% – thanks to environmental concerns that are promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear power. Colombia’s thermal generation in 2009 was an estimated 10.2TWh, or 2.49% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for 2.55% of thermal generation.
For Colombia, oil is the dominant fuel, accounting for an estimated 34.6% of 2009 primary energy demand (PED), followed by hydro at 31.7%, gas at 23.9% and coal with a 7.5% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 748mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2014, representing 13.8% growth during 2010-2014. Colombia’s estimated 2009 market share of 4.86% is set to ease to 4.78% by 2014. The country’s estimated 43TWh of hydro demand in 2009 is forecast to reach 49TWh by 2014, with its share of the Latin America hydro market falling from an estimated 7.00% to 6.75%.
Colombia is now ranked third ahead of Argentina in BMI’s updated power sector Business Environment Ratings, thanks to its use of renewable (mostly hydro-power) energy and relatively low energy import dependency. Regulatory issues and privatisation progress beat the regional average, but country risk factors offset some of the industry strength. Over the next several quarters, the country is quite capable of narrowing the four-point gap between it and second-placed Chile.
BMI is now forecasting Colombian average annual real GDP growth of 3.26% between 2010 and 2014, with an increase of 2.10% assumed for 2010. The population is expected to expand from 48.6mn to 52.6mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase by 30% and 7% respectively. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 40.5TWh in 2009 to 47.6TWh by the end of the forecast period. This results in a theoretical generation surplus, but occasional power imports will be required if electricity generation grows at our forecast rate (2010-2014) of an average 3.3% per annum.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Colombian electricity generation of 32.8%, which is below average for the Latin America region. This equates to 15.9% in the 2014-2019 period, up from 14.5% in 2010-2014. PED growth is set to rise from 13.1% in 2010-2014 to 15.4% in 2014-2019, representing 30.5% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 31% in hydro-power use during 2010- 2019 is one key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 27% between 2010 and 2019. More details of the longer-term BMI power forecasts can be found at the end of this report.
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