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Mexico Power Report Q3 2010
Business Monitor International, July 2010, Pages: 45
Business Monitor International's Mexico Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Mexico's power industry.
The newly published Mexico Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 20.98% of Latin America regional power generation by 2014, with a developing power surplus available for export to the US. BMI’s Latin America power generation assumption for 2009 is 1,109 terawatt hours (TWh), a decrease of 1.9% from the previous year. We are forecasting growth in regional generation to 1,302TWh by 2014, a 2010-2014 increase of 12.9%.
Latin American thermal power generation in 2009 is assumed by BMI to have been 409TWh, accounting for 36.9% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 454TWh, implying 9.4% growth during 2010-2014, trimming the market share of thermal generation to 34.9% – thanks to environmental concerns that are promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear power. Mexico’s 2009 thermal generation was an estimated 189TWh, representing 46.24% of the regional total. By 2014, it is expected to account for 45.50% of regional thermal generation.
For Mexico, oil is the dominant fuel, accounting for an estimated 53.2% of 2009 primary energy demand (PED), followed by gas at 34.3%, coal at 5.5%, hydro-electric energy at 4.4% and nuclear energy with a 0.9% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 748mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2014, representing 13.8% growth during 2010-2014. Mexico’s estimated market share in 2009 was 25.18%, easing to a forecast 24.57% by 2014. The country’s 9.5TWh of estimated nuclear demand in 2009 is forecast to reach 11.0TWh by 2014, with its share of the Latin American nuclear market set to rise from 31.67% to 33.85%.
Mexico is ranked sixth, ahead only of Venezuela, in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment Ratings, in spite of its considerable market size and reasonable growth prospects. The lack of privatisation progress, poorly developed competitive landscape and demanding regulatory environment conspire with country risk factors to depress the score and put Mexico near the foot of the table. While Peru above is likely to remain out of reach, Mexico should be able to keep Venezuela at bay.
BMI is now forecasting average annual Mexican real GDP growth of 3.00% between 2010 and 2014, with an increase of 4.40% assumed for 2010. The population is expected to expand from 107.6mn to 111.6mn over the period, with GDP per capita forecast to increase by 48%. Electricity consumption per capita is now expected to increase during the period by around 7%. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 191TWh in 2009 to 218TWh by the end of the forecast period, providing a rising net export capability, assuming 2.4% average annual growth in electricity generation during 2010-2014.
Between 2010 and 2019, we forecast an increase in Mexican electricity generation of 24.0%, below the Latin American average. This equates to 12.6% in 2014-2019, up from 10.2% in 2010-2014. PED growth is set to rise from the 2010-2014 level of 12.0% to 16.5%in 2014-2019, or 30.5% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 32% in hydro-power use in 2010-2019 is a key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 19% between 2010 and 2019, with nuclear demand rising by 47%. More details of the longer-term BMI power forecasts can be found later in this report.
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