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Nigeria Power Report Q3 2010
Business Monitor International, July 2010, Pages: 55
Business Monitor International's Nigeria Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Nigeria's power industry.
In this new report, we forecast that Nigeria will account for 2.39% of Middle East and Africa (MEA) regional power generation by 2014, with the country struggling to narrow the supply/demand gap. BMI’s MEA power generation estimate for 2009 is 1,225 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 1.9% over the previous year. We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 1,572TWh by 2014, representing a rise of 23.2% between 2010 and the end of the period.
Thermal power generation in 2009 is estimated by BMI at 1,064TWh, accounting for 86.9% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 1,293TWh, implying 18.8% growth in 2010- 2014 that reduces slightly the market share of thermal generation to 82.3% – thanks in part to environmental concerns that should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Nigeria’s thermal generation in 2009 was an estimated 18TWh, or 1.69% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for 2.20% of regional thermal generation.
Direct burning of wood and waste materials was the dominant energy source for Nigeria in 2009, accounting for an estimated 73% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by gas at 16% and oil with a near 10% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 1,075mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2014, representing 19.3% growth over the period since 2010. Nigeria’s estimated 2009 market share of 12.37% is set to rise to 12.44% by 2014.
Nigeria takes eighth place above only Kuwait and Algeria in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment rating. Its position should prove secure over the medium term, although South Africa just two points above is likely to remain out of immediate reach. Import dependency is average for the region, while the proportion of renewables is relatively high. However, the power sector is not particularly competitive, with limited progress towards privatisation.
BMI forecasts that Nigeria’s real GDP growth will average 7.40% a year between 2010 and 2014, with 2010 growth assumed to be 7.50%. The population is expected to expand from 151mn to 167mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase by 61% and 26% respectively. Power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 23.3TWh in 2009 to 34.7TWh by 2014, providing an improvement in market coverage on the basis of 9.6% average annual growth (2010-2014) in electricity generation. Losses of more than 2.5TWh during power transmission and distribution mean the market is likely to remain tight for several years.
Between 2010 and 2019 we forecast a 170.4% increase in Nigerian electricity generation, at the top of the MEA range. This equates to 68.9% in 2014-2019, up from 60.1% in 2010-2014. PED growth is set to rise from 21.6% in 2010-2014 to 27.6% in 2014-2019, representing 55.1% for the entire forecast period. Hydro-power use is forecast to increase by 71% between 2010 and 2019, while thermal power generation is expected to rise 212% during the period, fuelled largely by natural gas. Details of the longer-term BMI power forecasts can be found later in this report.
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