Germany Oil and Gas Report Q3 2010
Business Monitor International, July 2010, Pages: 79
The Germany Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Germany's oil and gas industry.
The latest Germany Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 17.61% of developed European regional oil demand by 2014, while making a contribution of just 1.08% to supply. In Developed Europe, overall oil consumption was an estimated 13.28mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2009. It is set to recover to around 13.44mn b/d by 2014. Developed Europe regional oil production was 6.96mn b/d in 2001, and in 2009 averaged an estimated 4.73mn b/d. It is set to fall to just 3.71mn b/d by 2014. Oil imports are growing steadily because supply is contracting and demand is rising, albeit slowly. In 2009, net crude imports were an estimated 9.18mn b/d. By 2014, they are expected to have reached 9.73mn b/d. Norway will remain the only major net exporter, with the UK a net importer.
As regards natural gas, the Developed Europe region in 2009 consumed an estimated 426bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 473bcm targeted for 2014, representing 9.6% growth. Production of an estimated 265bcm in 2009 is set to fall to 263bcm in 2014, which implies net imports rising from the estimated 2009 level of 161bcm to some 210bcm by the end of the period. Germany’s share of gas consumption in 2009 was an estimated 19.00%, while it accounted for 4.99% of production. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 19.67%, with a 4.37% share of production.
We are sticking with our forecast that the OPEC basket of crudes will average US$83.00/bbl in 2010. Wide variations in crude differentials so far in 2010 make forecasting tricky for Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Urals, but we believe the three benchmarks will average around US$85.11, US$88.22 and US$83.62/bbl respectively, with Dubai coming in at US$83.14. By 2011, there should be further growth in oil consumption and more room for OPEC to regain market share and reduce surplus capacity through higher production quotas. We are assuming a further increase in the OPEC basket price to an average US$85.00/bbl. For 2012 and beyond, we continue to use a central case forecast of US$90.00/bbl for the OPEC basket.
For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$96.83/bbl. The year-on-year (y-o-y) rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 38%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$92.45/bbl, with the full-year outturn representing a 37% increase from the 2009 level. For jet fuel in 2010, the annual level is forecast to be US$95.58/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$82.46/bbl, up 39% from the previous year’s level.
German real GDP is assumed by BMI to have fallen by 5.0% in 2009, followed by forecast growth of 2.0% in 2010. We are assuming 1.7% average annual growth in 2010-2014. Our forecast is for minimal oil demand growth to 2014, with end-period consumption at no more than 2.37mn b/d after declining demand in 2009/10. Gas consumption is now 24% of primary energy demand, accounting for 11% of power generation supply. Our estimate is for gas demand to rise from an estimated 81.5bcm in 2010 to 93.0bcm by 2014. Germany’s gas production is forecast to fall from an estimated 13.0bcm in 2010 to 11.5bcm over the period.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting a decline in German oil and gas liquids consumption of 5.65%, with volumes peaking at 2.40mn b/d in 2012, then heading lower to 2.25mn b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Production is set to fall from an estimated 52,000b/d to just 25,000b/d during the same period. Gas demand should rise from the estimated 2010 level of 81.5bcm to a peak of 93bcm by 2013/2014, before slipping back to 89bcm by 2019. Imports are expected to peak at 81.5bcm in 2014, in the form of pipeline volumes. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
According to BMI’s country risk team, Germany’s long-term political risk score is 85.8, compared with the Developed Markets average of 86.7 and the global average of 63.7. Our long-term economic rating for the country is 65.0, below the Developed Markets average of 67.0 and above the global average of 53.7. Germany has a privatised energy sector operating under EU guidelines. There is a small upstream oil and gas segment, with international oil company (IOC) and local company involvement. Downstream oil features a mixture of IOCs and domestic companies, while gas and electricity interests remain in largely German (non-state) hands.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Germany Political SWOT
Germany Economic SWOT
Germany Energy Market Overview
Global Oil Market Outlook
Is The Price Right?
Oil Price Forecasts
Oil Supply, Demand And Price Outlook
Short-Term Demand Outlook
Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Short-Term Supply Outlook
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)
Longer-Term Supply And Demand
Oil Price Assumptions
Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2010
Table: Oil Price Forecasts
Regional Energy Market Overview
Oil Supply And Demand
Table: Developed Markets Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Table: Developed Markets Oil Production (000b/d)
Oil: Downstream
Table: Developed Markets Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Gas Supply And Demand
Table: Developed Markets Gas Consumption (bcm)
Table: Developed Markets Gas Production (bcm)
Liquefied Natural Gas
Table: Developed Markets LNG Imports/(Exports) (bcm)
Industry Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Reserves
Oil Supply And Demand
Gas Supply And Demand
LNG
Refining And Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs
Table: Germany Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts
Other Energy
Table: Germany Other Energy – Historical Data And Forecasts
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Long-Term Oil And Gas Outlook
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: Refineries In Germany
Service Stations
Oil Pipelines
Oil Terminals
Oil Storage
Gas Pipelines
Gas Storage
LNG Terminals
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Germany – Economic Activity
Competitive Landscape
Executive Summary
Table: Key Players – German Oil And Gas Sector
Overview/State Role
Licensing/Regulation
Government Policy
International Energy Relations
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Monitor
Royal Dutch Shell
BP
Total
ExxonMobil
PKN Orlen
OMV
Gazprom – Summary
Rhein Petroleum – Summary
RWE – Summary
E.ON – Summary
Wintershall – Summary
Others – Summary
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
Regional Oil Demand
Table: Developed Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Regional Oil Supply
Table: Developed Europe Oil Production (000b/d)
Regional Refining Capacity
Table: Developed Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Regional Gas Demand
Table: Developed Europe Gas Consumption (bcm)
Regional Gas Supply
Table: Developed Europe Gas Production (bcm)
Germany Country Overview
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
Oil And Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology
Introduction
Ratings Overview
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure
Indicators
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Royal Dutch Shell
- BP
- Total
- ExxonMobil
- PKN Orlen
- OMV
- Gazprom
- Rhein Petroleum
- RWE
- E.ON
- Wintershall
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