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Algeria Power Report 2010
Business Monitor International, July 2010, Pages: 47
Algeria Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Algeria's power industry.
The new Algeria Power Report from BMI forecasts that Algeria will by 2014 account for 3.39% of Middle East/Africa (MEA) regional power generation. BMI’s MEA power generation estimate for 2009 is 1,225 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 1.9% over the previous year. We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 1,572TWh by 2014, representing a rise of 23.2% between 2010 and the end of the period.
Thermal power generation in 2009 is estimated by BMI at 1,064TWh, accounting for 86.9% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 1,293TWh, implying 18.8% growth in 2010- 2014 that reduces slightly the market share of thermal generation to 82.3% – thanks in part to environmental concerns that should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Algeria’s thermal generation in 2009 was an estimated 40.8TWh, or 3.84% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for 4.06% of thermal generation.
The regional energy preference is for oil, which accounted for 45.6% of 2008 primary energy demand (PED). Next in line is gas, with a 39.2% market share. Coal takes a 12.3% share of the regional energy pie, with nuclear accounting for 0.3% and hydro-electric energy representing 2.6% of regional demand. For Algeria, gas was the dominant fuel in 2009, accounting for an estimated 61.7% of PED, followed by oil at 36.2%, and coal with a 1.8% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 1,075mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2014, representing 19.3% growth over the period since 2010. Algeria’s estimated 2009 market share of 4.35% is set to climb to 4.47% by 2014.
Algeria is now in last place behind Kuwait in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment rating, in spite of its low energy import dependency and healthy energy demand growth prospects. Regulatory issues and privatisation progress lag the regional average and, although certain country risk factors are more favourable than the regional norm, the country seems destined to tussle with Kuwait for the bottom slot of the league table.
BMI is now forecasting Algerian real GDP growth averaging 3.78% per annum between 2010 and 2014, with the 2010 forecast being 3.10%. Population is expected to expand from 34.9mn to 37.6mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase by 31% and 16% respectively. Power consumption amounted to an estimated 30.7TWh in 2009 and is forecast to reach 38.9TWh by the end of the forecast period, providing a broadly balanced market, assuming 5.3% average annual growth (2010-2014) in electricity generation.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Algerian electricity generation of 57.3%, which is mid-range for the MEA region. This equates to 27.9% in the 2014-2019 period, up from 23.0% in 2010-2014. PED growth is set to increase from 21.6% in 2010-2014 to 24.0%, representing 50.7% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 400% in hydro-power use during 2010-2019 is one key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 54% between 2010 and 2019. More details of the longer-term BMI power forecasts can be found at the end of this report.
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