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Hong Kong Power Report 2010
Business Monitor International, July 2010, Pages: 58
Hong Kong Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Hong Kong' power industry.
The new Hong Kong Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for just 0.44% of Asia Pacific regional power generation by 2014, with a continuing requirement to import electricity from the Chinese mainland. BMI’s Asia Pacific power generation assumption for 2009 is 7,308 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 2.6% over the previous year. We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 9,725TWh by 2014, representing a rise of 26.2% in 2010-2014.
Asia Pacific thermal power generation in 2009 totalled an estimated 5,849TWh, accounting for 80.0% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 7,600TWh, implying a 23.7% growth that reduces the market share of thermal generation to 78.1%. This is thanks largely to environmental concerns promoting renewable sources, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Hong Kong’s thermal generation in 2009 is estimated at 37.5TWh, or 0.64% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for 0.57% of thermal generation.
For Hong Kong, oil is the dominant fuel, accounting for an estimated 61% of 2009 primary energy demand (PED), followed by coal at 29%, and gas at 10.%. Indirectly, Hong Kong is a significant nuclear energy consumer, in that imported electricity is generated by nuclear sites on the Chinese mainland. Regional energy demand is forecasted to reach 5,334mn toe by 2014, representing 24.6% growth from the estimated 2009 level. Hong Kong’s estimated 2009 market share of 0.58% is set to ease to 0.51% by 2014.
Hong Kong is now ranked 11th in BMI’s updated Asia Power Business Environment rating, thanks to its modest market size and below-average growth prospects. Certain country risk factors offset some of the industry weakness, but the country seems destined to vie with SIngapore and South Korea near the foot of the table for the foreseeable future.
BMI is now forecasting Hong Kong real GDP growth averaging 3.32% per annum between 2010 and 2014, with the 2010 forecast being a rise of 2.40%. Population is expected to expand from 7.1mn to 7.3mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase by 19% and 9% respectively. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 48TWh in 2009 to 55TWh by the end of the forecast period, requiring electricity imports rising from an estimated 10.5TWh in 2009 to at least 11.8TWh in 2014, assuming 2.9% average annual growth in 2010- 2014 generating capacity. Mainland China will be the provider of imported power, largely from nuclear facilities.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Hong Kong electricity generation of 33.6%, which is towards the lower end of the range for the Asia Pacific region. This equates to 17.6% in the 2014-2019 period, up from 13.6% in 2010-2014. PED growth is set to rise from 11.8% in 2010-2014 to 13.1%, representing 26.5% for the entire forecast period. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 33.6% between 2010 and 2019. More detail of the long-term BMI power forecasts can be found later in this report.
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