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Sri Lanka Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q3 2010
Business Monitor International, July 2010, Pages: 43
The Sri Lanka Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Sri Lanka's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
According to BMI's drug expenditure forecast model, sales of pharmaceuticals in Sri Lanka are expected to increase from LKR38.97bn (U$339mn) in 2009 to LKR43.88bn (US$388mn) in 2010. Due to the strengthening rupee, this equates to 12.6% growth in local currency terms and 14.2% in US dollar terms. Although these projections are below the market's 2004-2009 compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.5%, they compare favourably with the regional average of 11.6%.
Sri Lanka has an enlightened pharmaceutical sector. During the 1970s, the country demonstrated that a state buying agency linked to a national formulary was a viable and powerful instrument for reducing drug costs without compromising quality. It also had the important attributes of preserving valuable foreign reserves, rationalising medicine usage and for supplying essential drugs at reasonable prices to the whole community.
Sri Lanka receives a score of 40.7 out of 100 on BMI's Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare BERs for Q310. This makes it the region’s 14th most attractive market, behind Vietnam (42.1) and ahead of Bangladesh (39.7). Sri Lanka scores above the regional average for country risk, but is let down by industry rewards, country rewards and industry risks.
Counterfeit medicines are a moderate problem in Sri Lanka. In mid-2009, doctors claimed that nearly a third of pharmaceuticals they dispense are fake and thereby endanger the health of patients. However, the Ministry of Health says the issue is overblown and the prevalence of imitation drugs is low. BMI's stance is somewhere in between. As with all other countries, the true prevalence of counterfeits in Sri Lanka is unknown and generally exaggerated or underplayed depending on which stakeholder is asked. BMI’s Burden of Disease Database (BoDD) reveals that the number of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost to non-communicable diseases in Sri Lanka will increase from 2,237,788 in 2009 to 2,891,156 in 2010 – a rise of 29%.
Meanwhile, the number of DALYs lost to communicable diseases will fall by 51%, from 346,265 to 168,196.
Domestic manufacturers account for just 10% of the country's US$339mn pharmaceutical market and Sri Lanka's reliance on imported drugs is a concern. Fluctuations in the prices of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) – as seen in 2008, when the price of crude oil reached record highs and then dropped – cause the cost of finished medicines to change wildly. By stimulating local production, a steadier supply of medicines will be achieved, which is of great importance to the state, prescribers and patients.
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