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Bahrain Food and Drink Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Aug 2010, Pages: 52
The Bahrain Food and Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, food and drink associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Bahrain's food and drink industry.
After falling flat in 2009 due to low consumer confidence and high levels of unemployment, consumer spending in Bahrain appears to be recovering and we expect a rebound to 5.0% growth in 2010 and 6.0% in 2011. The Bahraini retail sector is characterised by an increased tendency on the part of consumers to trade up to higher value products, a trend that slowed significantly during the downturn. However, with GDP forecast to increase by 1.5% in 2010, rising again modestly by 1.9% in 2011, a recovery is underway. However, it should be noted that while there are opportunities through premiumisation, the very small size of the Bahraini population, at under 1mn, severely curtails any significant long-term growth opportunities.
Headline Industry Data
- 2010 per capita food consumption = +6.5%; forecast to 2014 = +22.2%
- 2010 soft drinks sales = +4.8%; forecast to 2014 = +32.7%
- 2010 mass grocery retail sales = +10.3%; forecast to 2014 = +63.5%
- 2010 convenience store sales = +18.7%; forecast to 2014 = +125.8%
Key Company Trends
Retail expansion: In June 2010, British premium supermarket retailer Waitrose announced plans to launch its first store in Bahrain in a bid to strengthen its position in the high-spending Gulf region. The 2,000m2 store will be operated under license by Fine Fare Food Market as a part of the retailer’s regional diversification strategy. Waitrose is attracted by the Gulf region’s high-spending, expatriateheavy population and the fact that organised retail remains a modestly developed channel, particularly outside Dubai. This is Waitrose’s second foray into the Gulf, having launched two stores in the UAE in association with Spinneys Dubai. While Bahrain may not appear to be the most obvious choice of market after the UAE, Bahrain is an attractive market due to its positive regulatory environment and a highspending expatriate community that arguably lacks retail options. Most of the investment into retail has so far focused on hypermarkets, which do not have the convenience or premium food and drink options of Waitrose stores.
Investment in agribusiness:In July 2010, it was announced that plans are underway for the establishment of a private poultry firm in Bahrain as a part of a BHD10mn (US$26.6mn) investment project. The government is supporting initiatives spearheaded by the private sector with the aim of promoting the country’s food security. When completed, the facility is expected to produce up to 10mn chickens annually, which will go a long way in meeting consumer demand at affordable prices.
Key Risks To Outlook
A drop in oil prices: While a drop in oil prices does not look likely at the moment, it is certainly not beyond the realm of possibility if BMI’s double-dip global downturn scenario plays out. Bahrain will muddle through if the oil price stays high, as is our core scenario, but if it drops again, making the implementation of income tax necessary, then there are serious risks to growth, the size of the expatriate population and the financial sector.
Local dissatisfaction: There is a degree of public discomfort with their government’s relentless pursuit of foreign investment. In a bid to attract foreign business, the government has allowed an increasingly liberal leisure environment and many Bahrainis are unhappy with the level of tolerance of Western cultural imports such as alcohol, which could present a long-term risk for the alcoholic drinks industry, which is well established by regional standards.
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