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Greece Food and Drink Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Aug 2010, Pages: 67
The Greece Food and Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, food and drink associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Greece's food and drink industry.
The fiscal problems faced by Greece have prompted us to downgrade our forecasts for food and drink consumption, with austerity measures meaning we now expect a contraction in most headline indicators in 2010. The defensive nature of the industry means it is likely to be hit less hard than industries for which it is easier to withdraw discretionary spending. However, there is likely to be extensive trading down, including a move towards private label options, and these trends could linger beyond the downturn, with consumer caution likely to remain a prevalent feature of the sector.
Headline Industry Data
- 2010 per capita food consumption = -1.1%; forecast to 2014 = -2.0%
- 2010 alcoholic drink sales = -1.1%; forecast to 2014 = -2.9%
- 2010 soft drink sales = -1.1% ; forecast to 2014 = -0.4%
- 2010 mass grocery retail sales = -0.1%; forecast to 2014 = +2.5%
Key Company Trends
Split up of Vivartia: In April 2010, Greek investment fund Marfin Investment Group (MIG) announced that its food business Vivartia is to sell its bakery and confectionery business unit. MIG will sell the unit for EUR730mn to a group led by Saudi investment group Olayan and Vivartia CEO Spyros Theodoropoulos. MIG has said proceeds from the sale will allow it to deleverage as it looks to adapt to the difficulties in the Greek economic environment. However, the disposal will leave it with less of a hold over the Greek food sector and it is likely to lead to increased competition.
Discounters adapting their strategies: Discount chain Lidl, owned by Germany’s Schwarz Group, has developed a new store concept for Greece as it seeks to overcome the challenges posed by the country’s high land prices. The new stores are to be located in town centres and will be smaller than Lidl’s usual outlets, with fewer than 1,000 stock-keeping units (SKUs). The firm launched its first store under this concept in Thessaloniki, Greece’s second largest city, and is likely to roll out the format if it delivers a better return on investment. Greece’s economic turbulence means the discount sector has high potential, although the problem of high land prices is one that is yet to be fully overcome by either Lidl or its German rival Aldi, which entered the market in 2008
Key Risks To Outlook
Government default: The risks to our outlook are weighted to the downside as we still believe a default is the likely conclusion to Greece’s fiscal problems. Greece’s liabilities are far in excess of its ability to pay and we believe the latest financial support pledges will only push back the recognition of liabilities to a future date. Ultimately, we believe the only options available to Greece are outright default, debt restructuring or a direct transfer of liabilities to eurozone states. The latter two options would still represent a technical default since the government would renege on the original terms of its bond contracts. However, either would clearly be preferable to a full-scale default, which could have very severe consequences for every part of the Greek economy and the EU.
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