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United Arab Emirates Food and Drink Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Aug 2010, Pages: 57
The United Arab Emirates Food and Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, food and drink associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the United Arab Emirates' food and drink industry.
While the UAE is in the middle of a fairly robust economic recovery, with GDP growth of 4.8% forecast for 2010, much of the growth will be driven by external factors. Underlined by the fact that real private consumption growth of just 1% is forecast for 2010, consumer spending remains weak with Dubai in particular continuing to feel the effects of the 2009 Dubai World crisis.
Consequently, demand for premium goods is expected to remain fragile over the near term with a pickup expected in 2011. We continue to see plenty of room for premiumised growth over the medium-to-long term. The UAE’s economy has grown at phenomenal speed over the past decade and it has been almost impossible for the consumer goods industry to keep up with the pace at which tastes and preferences have evolved.
Given the UAE’s position as a regional hub for multinational food and drink companies and the fact that consumer spending across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is expected to grow considerably over the next few years, companies are expected to continue following through with major fixed asset investments.
Headline Industry Data
- 2010 per capita food consumption = +2.68%; forecast to 2014 = +9.36%
- 2010 soft drinks value sales = +3.44%; forecast to 2014 = +14%
- 2010 mass grocery retail sales = +8.02%; forecast to 2014 = +40.33%
Key Company Trends
MNC Expansion Ongoing – multinational companies are continuing to pursue fixed asset investments in the UAE despite the ongoing downturn in consumer spending. In May 2010, Mars GCC announced the launch of a US$40mn manufacturing facility in Dubai as the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region assumed greater strategic significance. In March 2010, it was announced that Nestlé had launched a new plant in Dubai with an annual production capacity of 100,000 tonnes.
Duty Free Sales Flying – The ongoing strength of Dubai Duty Free (DDF) continues to contrast with onthe- ground caution in Dubai – up until now the driving force behind the Gulf premiumisation wave. DDF H110 sales increased 16% year-on-year (y-o-y) to US$607mn. The performance of DDF matters a lot to premium food and drink companies targeting the Gulf region in our opinion. It is the world’s largest dutyfree retailer in terms of annual sales and is responsible for nearly 50% of duty-free sales in the Middle East region.
Key Risks to Outlook
Downside risks to our UAE consumer view are largely based on external factors. Over the H210 (calendar) period it will remain vulnerable to external developments, namely oil prices and external trade. If the outlook for these two factors deteriorated, the pace of the consumer recovery will be adversely affected.
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