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Australia Freight Transport Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Aug 2010, Pages: 27
The Australia Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, freight transportation associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Australia's freight transportation industry.
India's battle with China for access to the world's natural resources has thrown up a new development with news that Indian coal importer Adani Group is being lined up as a potential investor in a new export terminal in the Australian state of North Queensland. We believe the growing interests of foreign operators in Australia's freight transport sector, though helping to offset the current shortcomings of the country's supply chain, risks stoking diplomatic tensions in the Asia-Pacific region.
The Queensland government's decision to grant rights to Adani, which is India's largest importer of thermal coal, to develop a new port at Dudgeon Point near the existing Dalrymple Bay terminal, is the first deal of its kind between the government and an Indian operator. Although, in our view, Australia is in need of outside assistance to develop its freight transport sector to meet the needs of its growing metals and mineral exports, this role has traditionally been reserved for Chinese or Japanese firms, which have been the industry's main clients to date.
BMI Freight Transport desk forecast for Thailand's air freight shows a year on year growth of cargo traffic in the financial year 2009/10 (FY10). We see
Thailand's air freight volume recovering by 2.54% yo- y this year to 787,650 tonnes, after an estimated contraction of 1.64% in FY09.
We expect cargo handled at two of Australia's key ports, the Port of Melbourne (POM) and Port of Sydney (POS), have grown at a slow rate in the FY10. In general tonnage terms, POM will be out in front, with 4.1% growth to 30.3mn tonnes, starting to recover from the 2008/09 downturn when the port was not able to sidestep the effects of the international recession (volumes fell by 5.6% to 29.1mn tonnes in FY09). FY10 total volume at POS is expected to gain a more subdued 2.5% to 28.49mn tonnes. In 2008/09, volumes there dropped by 4.7% to 27.8mn tonnes.
For the rail freight sector we expect the volumes to recover 3.92% to 700.1mn tonnes this year, after falling an estimated 0.44% in FY09. The growth, however, should be negative in FY11 with cargo traffic decreasing by 1.06%.
BMI forecasts similar growth pattern for the country's road freight. We predict the FY10 volumes to reach 2.32bn tonnes, a y-o-y increase of 4.46% after an estimated fall of 1.72% in FY09. FY11, however, will see road freight volumes to decline by 1.51%.
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