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Poland Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Aug 2010, Pages: 85
Business Monitor International's Poland Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Poland's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
Propped up by its large population, Poland has surfaced as one of the most important global emerging markets, with its value in 2009 calculated at PLN30.25bn (US$10.26bn) at retail prices. Over a five-year period, BMI forecasts that pharmaceutical sales in Poland will increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.7% in zloty terms, or 9.1% in US dollar terms. By absolute value, the market will have grown to PLN41.80bn (US$15.83bn) by 2014, making Poland the ninth-fastest growing market globally.
In BMI’s Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Business Environment Ratings (BERs) for Emerging Europe in Q410, Poland remains in second place, supported by increased optimism surrounding the country’s market outlook. On a global basis, Poland is 17th of the total of 83 markets surveyed in our pharmaceutical universe. However, the country’s longer-term demographic outlook is relatively challenging, as are some of the current regulatory issues.
Nevertheless, factors such as an educated workforce and lower manufacturing costs will continue to attract foreign players. To this end, in July 2010, Synexus, a UK-based clinical trials company, was reported to be expanding its presence in Poland with a new research centre in the northern city of Gdynia.
This adds to the company's portfolio of facilities across the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region, which includes research centres in Bulgaria, Hungary, Austria and Ukraine. In addition to lower operating costs, Synexus and other clinical research organisations (CROs) are also attracted to emerging markets by their large segments of treatment-naïve patients. The clinical trials industry in Poland is already worth around PLN700mn (US$233mn), with the number of Phase IV trials increasing in recent years.
BMI expects the Polish economy to continue expanding at a healthy clip over our ten-year forecast period, with average annual real growth of 3.3% during 2015-2019. Moreover, Poland's solid macroeconomic fundamentals and credible central bank will likely see euro adoption around 2014, underpinning further integration into the EU and thus further facilitating cross-border business. Inflation of less than 3% for most of our forecast period will also mean that the forecast expansion of the pharmaceutical market is mostly based on direct changes in values and volumes of medicines sold. Still, the operating environment for drugmakers – especially of those offering more expensive patented treatments – will remain challenging, given the focus on cost-containment. While the recently announced PLN590mn (US$187mn) injection into the reimbursement budget will provide a degree of optimism to the pharmaceutical industry, the amount is a shadow of the PLN1.5bn (US$476mn) overall cut in the public health expenditure budget for 2010. Nevertheless, threats remain from potential changes to the reimbursement system, the backlog of approvals for innovative drugs and the introduction of company taxation for reimbursed medicines. The local industry has been consolidating, partly as a result of the government’s privatisation initiatives, but also party due to competitive pressures.
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