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Bulgaria Telecommunications Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Aug 2010, Pages: 96
Business Monitor International's Bulgaria Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Bulgaria's telecommunications industry.
BMI’s Q410 update on Bulgaria’s telecoms sector contains Q110 operational and financial data published by the country’s leading mobile network operators Mobiltel, which is owned by Telekom Austria, Globul, which is backed by OTE/Deutsche Telekom. Together, these two operators accounted for 87% of Bulgaria’s mobile customer base at the end of March 2010. This report also includes latest figures on the Bulgaria’s fixed-line subscriptions, internet usage, and broadband connections as published by international organisations, including the International Telecommunications Union (ITU) and the European Commission (EC).
The growth in Bulgaria’s mobile subscriptions continued to slowdown in Q110 as operators discounted inactive SIMs while the government introduced mandatory registration of prepay SIMs. In the 12 months to March 31 2010, the the Bulgariam mobile market increased by just 1% y-o-y to reach 10.467mn. However, this was a 0.6% q-o-q decline over the figures for December 2009 as the operators’ embraked on inactive SIM discounting. Going forward, we expect less rapid subscriber growth in the market, especially as penetration rate hovers around 140%. Rather, BMI expects advanced services, such as data, multimedia, and other advanced VAS to drive revenue growth for operators. Meanwhile, migration of subscribers to postpaid services and the reduction in the prevalence of multiple SIM ownership due to lower termination rates are also factors that will slowdown the subscriber growth in Bulgaria’s mobile sector.
The completion of the CableTEL-Eurocom merger in early 2010 has created a new major player in Bulgaria’s broadband sector hitherto dominated by incumbent operator Vivacom. Both companies already offer triple-play, cable TV, local, long-distance and international telephony and internet services, and the combined entity, branded Blizoo, is believed to control more than 25% of the broadband market and over 80% of the paid-TV market. BMI expects the new company to challenge the dominance of Vivacom. BMI estimates that the imcumbent had over 31% share of the retail broadband market at January 2010. Vivacom’s market dominance has been helped by the continued delay in the design and implementation of an apprioprate framework for local loop unbudling which could see more alternative operators venture into the DSL market.
Latest figures from the ITU indicate that Bulgaria’s fixed-line market declined, but at a slower than expected rate, in 2009. BMI believes the growing interest in multi-play product bundles, often including fixed-line services, is a main factor in the reduced rate of decline in fixed-line subscriptions. Although we do not expect the downtrend to reverse anytime soon, at least within our forecast period, we believe the slowing rate of decline will continue in the medium term.
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