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Czech Republic Tourism Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Aug 2010, Pages: 53
Business Monitor International's Czech Republic Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, tourism associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Czech Republic's tourism industry.
Tourism Overview
After sharp falls in foreign tourist arrivals in the Czech hospitality sector in the early part of 2009, there has been a continuing improving trend in recent quarters. Although foreign guest arrivals declined by 8.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2009, compared with a 2.6% fall in domestic tourism, the rate of decline in foreign arrivals narrowed to -3.5% y-o-y in Q409. Data for Q110 show a turnaround in foreign tourism, with a nearly 3% y-o-y increase in the number of foreign guests, although domestic guest numbers fell compared with Q109.
Hospitality
In 2009, total overnight stays by foreign and domestic tourists were down by 6% y-o-y, with foreign and domestic tourist nights declining by 10.5% and 1.3% y-o-y respectively. In Q110, the hospitality sector recorded a rather weak performance, although non-resident tourism showed promising signs of improvement. Total foreign and domestic tourist overnight stays amounted to about 6.9mn in Q110, down just over 1% y-o-y. Of these overnight stays, foreign tourist nights edged up by 0.5% y-o-y but nights by domestic residents declined by nearly 3% y-o-y. Total guest numbers rose by 0.5% y-o-y to over 2.2mn at all accommodation establishments, driven by positive growth in the number of foreign guests, while domestic guest numbers fell y-o-y. Although foreign tourist spa nights also showed signs of an improving trend, they were still down by 3% y-o-y in Q110. In terms of the Czech Republic’s key source markets, the number of guests from Germany, Italy and the UK all declined y-o-y, although arrivals from Germany fell only slightly. The number of visitors from Russia and Poland increased by 4.5% and 1% y-o-y respectively.
Forecast Scenario
Our growth forecast of 2% y-o-y for foreign tourist arrivals in 2010 remains unchanged. BMI estimates that there was a 9% y-o-y fall in arrivals in 2009. We anticipate a slight acceleration in growth in 2011 to 4%. This forecast scenario is partly based on economic recovery in the Czech Republic’s main source markets. These include the eurozone, where growth is forecast at 1.0% and 1.4% – downgraded from 1.6% – in 2010 and 2011 respectively; the UK; the US and Russia, with the latter two forecast to achieve relatively strong economic growth over the same period. A factor likely to restrict growth in arrivals over the next few years is the exchange rate, with the koruna expected to resume its broad uptrend, particularly against the euro. We hold to our view that the koruna will appreciate to CZK24.500/EUR by the end of 2010.
Czech Airlines
Domestic carrier Czech Airlines (CSA) recorded a considerable loss of CZK3.7bn (US$198mn) in 2009, with a 3% y-o-y fall in passenger numbers to 5.46mn. The company has a three-year recovery plan approved by the government, with the aim to cut the loss by CZK600mn in 2010. Two of the points in the plan are further sales of assets and the separation of more activities into subsidiaries. CSA reported a recovery in scheduled passenger numbers in the first five months of 2010, with traffic increasing by 4.4% y-o-y. Press reports also indicate improved y-o-y financial results for Q110.
Prague Ruzyne Airport
Following a decline of nearly 8% y-o-y in total passenger traffic at Prague Ruzyne Airport in 2009, including an equivalent fall in international passenger numbers, there are tentative signs of recovery at the airport. Data for period January-May 2010 show a 0.1% y-o-y increase in total passenger traffic to 4mn. Although international traffic was up by 0.4% y-o-y to just under 4mn, domestic passenger numbers continued to fall, declining by 19% y-o-y.
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