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Hungary Tourism Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Aug 2010, Pages: 54
Business Monitor International's Hungary Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, tourism associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Hungary's tourism industry.
Hospitality After a significant downturn in 2009, data for the first two months of 2010 show a recovery in the hospitality sector, with the number of nights spent in all accommodation establishments up by 3.3% y-oy. Tourist nights by international visitors increased by nearly 6% y-o-y, but nights by domestic residents only went up by 1.3% y-o-y. Although tourist nights by German arrivals -- an important source market -- showed negative growth y-o-y, nights spent by tourists from Austria and Italy were rose strongly. In 2009, the number of nights spent in all accommodation establishments declined by 8.4% y-o-y, with tourist nights by international visitors falling by 10.0%. Nights by domestic residents fell slightly less, by about 7% y-o-y. Tourist nights by German arrivals were down by a 10% y-o-y, while the number of British tourist overnight stays fell by 22% y-o-y. The average occupancy rate was 47% in 2009, compared with nearly 48% the previous year.
Forecast Scenario Largely due to the recent pickup in growth in foreign tourist arrivals, we have raised our growth forecast for visitors to 3.2% y-o-y in 2010. We also expect growth in arrivals to accelerate slightly in 2011, although further weakness is anticipated over the forecast period. The short-term forecast is based on economic recovery in Hungary’s main source markets. These include the eurozone, which is expected to tentatively emerge from recession this year and growth is anticipated to pick up to 1.8% in 2011, as well as Romania and Slovakia, which are also expected to record moderate growth in 2010, accelerating in 2011. While volatility across Central and Eastern European (CEE) financial markets will likely remain pronounced in the short term, our forecast for the Hungarian forint is for further appreciation, which will restrict growth in tourist arrivals.
Malév Hungarian Airlines The national flag carrier, Malév Hungarian Airlines, reported a considerable loss of HUF24.4bn (US$130mn) in 2009, compared with a HUF14.5bn (US$77mn) loss in 2008 – but the airline remarkably increased its passenger numbers by an 6% y-o-y to 3.3mn people. After lengthy negotiations, the state reacquired a majority 95% ownership of Malév in February 2010. The strategic thinking appears to be that government ownership will guarantee financial stability for the airline while an intensive restructuring programme continues.
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