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Algeria Autos Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Aug 2010, Pages: 35
Algeria Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Algeria's automotive industry.
In common with most countries, Algeria experienced a poor year for car sales in 2009 (and by extension, imports) owing to the effects of the global economic downturn, although the decline in sales was not so catastrophic as that seen in some other markets. Imports of new vehicles stood at 231,760 units, according to Association des Concessionnaires Automobiles d’Algerie. This represented a fall of 6% year-on-year (y-o-y).
We expect a recovery in vehicle sales and imports in 2010. We forecast a rise in new vehicle sales to 263,311 vehicles, a record for the country and a rise of 14% y-o-y. This partly reflects the bounce-back from a relatively low base in 2010, predicated on reasonably strong real GDP growth (of 3%) and a moderate expansion of household expenditure. The differential between the expected rise in vehicle sales and the rise in GDP growth in percentage terms in 2010 is accounted for by the extreme demand sensitivity of vehicle sales and the low sales base created by the 2008 figure. In the first six months of 2010, a total of 115,008 new vehicles were sold in Algeria. We would expect a continued recovery in the second half of the year, such that H210 will see a total of just over 148,000 new vehicle sales. Over the long term, we expect reasonably strong annual growth of vehicle imports and sales. We forecast that the annual volume of new vehicle sales will reach just over 286,000 in 2012 and nearly 315,000 in 2015.
Renault is the market leader in the country by a comfortable margin. The French firm, operating under its local sales and distribution subsidiary Renault Algérie, sold a total of 37,306 new vehicles in Algeria in the first half of 2010, inclusive of 26,161 vehicles under its main banner, and 11,145 vehicles belonging to the Dacia brand. This amounts to a combined market share of 32.4% of new vehicle sales in Algeria in the first half of the calendar year.
There is a considerable gap between Renault Algérie and the number two auto company operating in Algeria, Hyundai Motor. The Japanese firm sold 14,299 vehicles through Rebrab gpe (its local distribution set-up) in H110, giving it a market share of 12.4% (up slightly from a low of 10.6% for calendar 2009 as a whole). In third place – but only just – is Toyota Algérie, which sold 10,953 vehicles in H110 (inclusive of Daihatsu models), for a market share of 9.5% (down from a share of 10.5% in calendar 2009 as a whole, and 12.5% in 2008 as a whole). Peugeot is the fourth biggest selling brand, with sales of 10,912 in the first half of 2010, giving it a market share of 9.5%. Chevrolet is in fifth place, with sales in H110 of 10,870 units, which also works out as a market share of 9.5%. This quarter, we introduce a SWOT analysis for both Renault Algérie and Toyota Algérie.
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