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India Autos Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Aug 2010, Pages: 50
India Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on India's automotive industry.
India's new vehicle market is facing a number of threats in FY11 (ending March 20110, not least rising raw material costs, which have prompted carmakers to hike their prices. Although carmakers will be forced to pass on higher raw material costs to consumers to protect margins, there are a number of reasons why BMI believes vehicle sales could weather the storm. With China accounting for a large proportion of the world's steel demand, a slowdown in the Chinese economy in H210 would likely impact this demand, lowering prices. While this may not necessarily lead to an immediate reduction in vehicle prices, it would at least create a period of price stability. In addition, this is the latest in a string of price hikes and consumers have so far been unfazed. Sales of passenger cars for the first three months of FY11 (April to June) were up 33% to 433,641 units, boosted by demand for a raft of new small cars.
India's two-wheeler market has in no way suffered from the influx of new small cars, however, and is forecast by BMI to surpass sales of 10mn units in the current financial year, up 6.9% year-on-year (y-oy). Within the sector, motorcycle sales are expected to grow by 7.8% and this has attracted new entrants to take on market leaders Hero Honda and Bajaj Auto, which have cornered around two-thirds of sales between them. While BMI expects overall two-wheeler growth to average 8.3% over the next five years, it will be carried by the motorcycle segment. Although some consumers may still prefer small cars, BMI believes a shift in focus towards the premium end of the spectrum will ensure average annual sales growth of around 9% in India's motorcycle segment over the next five years. Growth in scooter sales is likely to average a more modest 4%.
India stays sixth in BMI's Business Environment Ratings for the autos sector in Asia Pacific, with 55.4 from a possible 100. India shares the same pros and cons as China, ranking highly in terms of high production and sales growth potential, but with a low score for country structure (again caused by a large gap between wealthy urban and poorer rural areas), which acts as a restriction on future penetration rates. However, the country's regulatory environment rating is bolstered by the government's efforts to encourage 'green' motoring, as well as a number of free trade agreements which are supporting the country's bid to become a regional export hub.
In terms of new opportunities, private equity (PE) funds are returning to India's component supplier segment after little activity in 2009, supporting BMI's long-term core view that investment from non-auto companies in the sector will increase. PE deals with suppliers were worth US$246mn in 2008, up from US$240mn in 2007. With the industry now turning a corner and India's total vehicle production forecast by BMI to register average annual growth of 12% over the next five years, the related growth for suppliers is attracting PE funds.
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