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Australia Defence and Security Report Q3 2010
Business Monitor International, July 2010, Pages: 92
Business Monitor International's Australia Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Australia's defence and security industry.
Australia is a country with virtually no internally generated threats, but with mild exposure to external threats due to its close association with the US, plus its military involvement in both Iraq and Afghanistan. To date there have been no terrorist attacks in Australia. However, several persons were arrested last year for allegedly planning to attack an army base west of Sydney. Also more than 100 Australians were killed in the Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) terrorist attack on Bali in 2002.
Australian forces are active in peace keeping missions in Timor Leste, Bougainville and the Solomon Islands. They are also involved in coastal surveillance along Australia’s massive northern border and they maintain anti-terrorist watch on the off shore oil and gas platforms.
The all-volunteer forces are relatively well equipped, but much of the hardware is ageing and the government is facing the need for considerable capital investment for both the navy and air force over the coming decade. For instance, the government’s defence white paper, released in May 2009 recommends a considerable expansion of the navy, doubling the submarine fleet from six to 12, acquiring three new air warfare destroyers, eight new well armed frigates, 24 new naval combat helicopters, a larger fleet of more powerful patrol craft and development of serious anti-submarine warfare capability.
Most of this equipment will be imported, though local offset programs will ensure benefits accrue to the local defence industry.
Apart from shipbuilder Austal, which is listed on the Australian Securities Exchange and has operations in the US, most of the local industry consists of subsidiaries of global players including Boeing and Thales. These companies have been relatively successful by gaining a participation in projects such as the Joint Strike Fighter programme.
Economically, Australia fared better than many countries through the global financial crisis. The Australian economy was highly responsive to the fiscal and monetary stimuli initiated by the Australian government and Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), and the current growth momentum looks likely to be sustained in H110. As such, we have revised our 2010 growth forecast to 2.3% from an earlier projection of 1.9%. Further down the road, however, we believe that the current recovery will stall as household debt burdens become an increasing drag on domestic demand. Consequently, we are pencilling in belowconsensus real GDP growth of just 1.6% in 2011.
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