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Australia Power Report 2010
Business Monitor International, July 2010, Pages: 63
Business Monitor International's Australia Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Australia's power industry.
This new Australia Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 3.03% of Asia Pacific regional power generation by 2014, with a relatively stable theoretical generation surplus. BMI’s Asia Pacific power generation assumption for 2009 is 7,308 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 2.6% over the previous year. We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 9,725TWh by 2014, representing a rise of 26.2% in 2010-2014.
Asia Pacific thermal power generation in 2009 totalled an estimated 5,849TWh, accounting for 80.0% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 7,600TWh, implying a 23.7% growth that reduces the market share of thermal generation to 78.1%. This is thanks largely to environmental concerns promoting renewable sources, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Australia’s thermal generation in 2009 was an estimated 258TWh, or 4.41% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for 3.66% of thermal generation.
For Australia in 2008, coal was the dominant fuel, accounting for 43.3% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by oil at 35.9%, gas at 17.9% and hydro at 2.9%. Regional energy demand is forecasted to reach 5,334mn toe by 2014, representing 24.6% growth from the estimated 2009 level. Australia’s estimated 2009 market share of 2.93% is set to fall to 2.56% by 2014.
Australia is ranked first, above China, in BMI’s regional Power Business Environment rating, thanks to its low risk profile and competitive landscape. It has a comfortable five-point lead over its nearest rival. Market size and maturity offset some of the country’s other strengths, and there is risk over the longer term that China will challenge for regional leadership.
BMI is forecasting Australian real GDP growth averaging 2.4% per annum between 2010 and 2014, with the 2010 estimate being an increase of 2.3%. Population is expected to expand from 22.1mn to 24.0mn over the period, with 2010-2014 GDP per capita set to increase by 1.5% and electricity consumption per capita set to ease by 1.3%. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from around 228TWh in 2009 to 243TWh by the end of the forecast period, with theoretical surplus generation rising from an estimated 46TWh in 2009 to 52TWh by 2014 (assuming 1.5% average annual growth in generation in 2010-2014).
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting a 12.10%, increase in Australian electricity generation, which is one of the lowest projected rates for the Asia Pacific region. This equates to 5.10% in the 2014-2019 period, down from 6.66% in 2010-2014. PED growth is set to ease from 10.91% in 2010-2014 to 7.73% in 2014-2019, representing a 19.48% rise for the entire forecast period. An increase of 25.79% in hydropower use during 2010-2019 is a key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 11.26% between 2010 and 2019. More details of the long-term BMI power forecasts can be found later in this report.
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