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Japan Power Report 2010
Business Monitor International, July 2010, Pages: 49
Business Monitor International's Japan Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Japan's power industry.
This new Japan Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 11.97% of Asia Pacific regional power generation by 2014, with a comfortable theoretical generation surplus. BMI’s Asia Pacific power generation assumption for 2009 is 7,308 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 2.6% over the previous year. We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 9,725TWh by 2014, representing a rise of 26.2% in 2010-2014.
Asia Pacific thermal power generation in 2009 totalled an estimated 5,849TWh, accounting for 80.0% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 7,600TWh, implying a 23.7% growth that reduces the market share of thermal generation to 78.1%. This is thanks largely to environmental concerns promoting renewable sources, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Japan’s thermal generation in 2009 was an estimated 758TWh, or 12.96% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for 10.04% of regional thermal generation.
For Japan, in 2009, oil was the dominant fuel, accounting for an estimated 41% of primary energy demand (PED). This was followed by coal at 25%, gas at 17%, nuclear at 12% and hydro-power at 3%. Regional energy demand is forecasted to reach 5,334mn toe by 2014, representing 24.6% growth from the estimated 2009 level. Japan’s estimated 2009 market share of 12.19% is set to fall to 9.28% by 2014. Japan’s share of regional nuclear consumption in 2009 was an estimated 54.54%, falling to 43.28% by 2014.
BMI is forecasting that Japanese real GDP growth will average 1.26% per annum between 2010 and 2014, with the 2010 estimate being a rise of 1.90%. Population is expected to contract from 127.4mn to 125.9mn over the period, with 2010-2014 GDP per capita expected to shrink by 8%, while electricity consumption per capita is forecasted to increase by just under 4%. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from around 940TWh in 2009 to 975TWh by the end of the forecast period, with theoretical surplus generation rising from an estimated 155TWh in 2009 to 189TWh by 2014. This is assuming 1.2% average annual growth in generation in 2010-2014.
Japan is now ranked third, below only Australia and China, in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment rating, thanks to its market size and low risk profile. It is now two points behind China, but is at risk of being left still further behind. India, five points below, represents a long-term threat to Japan’s position. Market maturity offsets some of the country’s other strengths.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting a 10.12% increase in Japanese electricity generation, which is the lowest projected rate for the Asia Pacific region. This equates to 4.06% in the 2014-2019 period, down from 5.82% in 2010-2014. PED is set to rise by 0.41% in 2010-2014, then by 1.01% in 2014-2019, representing growth of 1.42% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 61.8% in hydro-power use during 2010-2019 is a key element of the power trend. Thermal power generation is forecasted to fall by 0.8% between 2010 and 2019. More details of the long-term BMI power forecasts can be found later in this report.
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