3Q10 Denmark Mobile Operator Forecast, 2010 - 2014
- ID: 1300898
- August 2010
- Region: Denmark
- 118 pages
- IE Market Research
Mobile Operator Forecast on Denmark provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Danish wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2014. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 1Q2012. Operators covered for Denmark include: TDC Mobile International, Telenor ASA, TeliaSonera AB, and Hutchison 3G. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast
TDC Mobile International
Hutchison 3G (For Hutchison 3G, only the subscriber data is available.)
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2014. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - March 2012
PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR -
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR
DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH)
MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD)
- Available only for TDC Mobile International
Subscriber growth remains strong in Denmark's wireless market
+9.9% industry average subscriber growth in 1Q.2010
• The industry average subscriber growth (YoY) was 9.9% in 1Q.2010, up from 8.6% in 1Q.2009. The number of mobile subscriber connections in Denmark reached 7.48 million in 1Q.2010. The wireless penetration rate was approximately 135%.
• 3 (Hutchison) is the leader in subscriber growth in Denmark with a 26.2% rate (YoY) in 1Q.2010.
• Telenor also had a strong subscriber growth rate (YoY) of 13.2% in 1Q.2010, up from 8.9% in 1Q.2009.
• TDC, the largest mobile network operator in Denmark, had a subscriber growth rate of 10.2% in 1Q.2010, up from 9.4% in 1Q.2009.
• In contrast, mobile subscriber growth rate at Telia (TeliaSonera) in Denmark declined from 1.6% in 1Q.2009 to 0.3% in 1Q.2010.
ARPUs continue declining in Denmark's wireless market
-10.5% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 1Q.2010
• The industry average ARPU (Average Revenue per User) in Denmark was DKK 173.21 in 1Q.2010, down -10.5% YoY.
• At the operator level, monthly ARPU at TDC declined significantly from DKK 186.59 in 1Q.2009 to DKK 165.75 in 1Q.2010 (ARPU growth rate of -10.7%). Telenor's monthly ARPU also declined to DKK 188.22 in 1Q.2010, down from DKK 208.59 in 1Q.2009.
• Telia's ARPU remains the highest in the country at DKK 232 in 1Q.2010, down -6.1% from DKK 247 in 1Q.2009.
Minutes of Use per Subscriber started to stabilize
0% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 1Q.2010
• The industry average Minutes of Use per Subscriber (MOU/Sub) was 157 minutes per month in 1Q.2010.
• Telia's MOU/Sub remains the highest in Denmark at 226 minutes per month in 1Q.2010.
• TDC's MOU/Sub was 108 minutes per month, and Telenor's MOU/Sub was 188 minutes per month in 1Q.2010.
EBITDA growth started to slow down across operators in the latest quarter
-0.5% industry average EBITDA growth in 1Q.2010
• The industry average EBITDA growth rate (YoY) declined from 12.0% in 1Q.2009 to -0.5% in 1Q.2010.
• EBITDA growth rates (YoY) at Telenor and Telia were negative at -2.4% and at -17.7% respectively in 1Q.2010.
• On the other hand, TDC's EBITDA growth (YoY) remained strong at 9.3% in 1Q.2010.
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
Total wireless subscriber connections in Denmark to increase to 8.99 million in 2014
• We forecast that the number of total wireless subscriber connections in Denmark will increase from 7.39 million in 2009 to 8.99 million in 2014.
• We expect that the largest mobile service provider, TDC, will see its subscriber base increase from 3.37 million in 2009 to 4.19 million in 2014.
• Also, our model predicts that Telenor will have approximately 2.5 million subscriber connections and Telia will have 1.6 million subscriber connections in Denmark's wireless market by the end of 2014.
TDC's subscriber market share to remain at 45% - 47% over the next five years
• Our model forecasts that TDC's subscriber market share will remain in the range of 45% - 47% over the next five years.
• On the other hand, we expect that Telia's market share will decrease from 19.7% in 2009 to approximately 18% in 2014 as smaller operators such as 3 (Hutchison) gain an increasing share of mobile subscribers.
Telia's ARPU level will remain the highest among operators over the next several years
• We expect that Telia will continue to receive higher ARPUs than TDC and Telenor.
• Our model forecasts that Telia's monthly ARPU will remain at approximately DKK 230 - DKK 240 while TDC's monthly ARPU remains below DKK 170 over the forecast period, 2010 - 2014.
TDC Mobile will continue to enjoy higher EBITDA margins than Telenor and Telia
• We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/service revenue) will remain at approximately 28% from 2010 to 2014.
• We expect that TDC's EBITDA margin will remain higher than those of Telenor and Telia over the next five years. Our model predicts that EBITDA margins at TDC, Telenor, and Telia will be approximately 33%, 28% and 22% over the next eight quarters.