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3Q10 Peru Mobile Operator Forecast, 2010 - 2014: Peru Product Image

3Q10 Peru Mobile Operator Forecast, 2010 - 2014: Peru

  • Published: August 2010
  • Region: Peru
  • 118 pages
  • IE Market Research Corp

Mobile Operator Forecast on Peru provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Peruvian wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2014. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 1Q2012. Operators covered for Peru include: Movistar Perú (Telefonica, S.A.), Claro S.A. (America Movil S.A.B. DE C.V.), BellSouth, and Nextel del Perú S.A. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast
Movistar Perú (Telefonica, S.A.)
Claro S.A. (America Movil S.A.B. DE C.V.)
Nextel del Perú S.A.

Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2014. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - March 2012

PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR -
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR
DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR --
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) --
MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH) --
MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) --
SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) ---
SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR ---
CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR ---
(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR ---
EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD) --
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) ---

- Available only for Claro and Nextel
-- Available only for Movistar Perú and Claro
--- Available only for Movistar Perú

Executive Summary

Double-digit subscriber growth continues in Peru, but growth is slowing down
+12.6% industry average subscriber growth in 1Q.2010

• The operator-wide subscriber growth (YoY) was 12.6% in 1Q.2010, down from 24.4% in 1Q.2009.
• Nextel enjoyed the highest subscriber growth rate among operators at 28.7% in 1Q.2010, down from 35.1% in 1Q.2009.
• Movistar Peru (Telefonica) saw its subscriber growth rate (YoY) fall from 23.6% in 1Q.2009 to 8.6% in 1Q.2010.
• Claro (America Movil) also saw its subscriber growth fall from 24.6% in 1Q.2009 to 16.7% in 1Q.2010.

ARPUs continue to decline at Movistar and Nextel
Industry average ARPU growth of -2.6% in 1Q.2010

• The industry average ARPU growth rate (YoY) in Peru was -2.6% in 1Q.2010, up from -13.0% in 1Q.2009.
• At the operator level, ARPU growth rates (YoY) at Movistar and Nextel were -3.7% and -22.1% respectively in 1Q.2010. Nextel's monthly ARPU remains the highest in the country at PEN 71 in 1Q.2010.
• Monthly ARPU at Claro was PEN 22 in 1Q.2010, up +4.8% YoY.

Strong EBITDA growth continues at Claro
+14.7% industry-average EBITDA growth in 1Q.2010

• EBITDA growth (YoY) at Movistar decreased from 55.7% in 1Q.2009 to 2.2% in 1Q.2010.
• Claro continues to enjoy strong EBITDA growth. Claro's EBITDA growth rate (YoY) was 53.8% in 1Q.2010, up from 43.1% in 1Q.2009.

So what is IEMR’s Forecast?

Total wireless subscriber connections in Peru to reach 26.9 million in 2014

• The wireless penetration rate in Peru is still relatively low at 73.3% in 1Q.2010, and we think that there is significant growth potential in Peru's wireless market. We forecast that the number of total wireless subscriber connections in Peru will increase from 20.6 million in 2009 to 26.9 million in 2014.
• Movistar will continue to be the largest wireless carrier in the country. We expect that Movistar's subscriber base in Peru will increase from 11.4 million in 2009 to 15.2 million in 2014.
• We also forecast that Claro will have 10.2 million subscriber connections and Nextel will have 1.5 million subscriber connections by the end of 2014.

Movistar's subscriber market share will be increasing over the next five years

• Given the latest quarter numbers, our model predicts that Movistar's market share in Peru will increase from 55.6% in 2009 to 56.4% in 2014.
• On the other hand, we forecast that Claro's market share will be decreasing over the next five years to reach 37.9% in 2014.

ARPUs will be declining at Nextel from 2010 to 2014

• We forecast that the industry average monthly ARPU in Peru will remain in the range of PEN 23 - PEN 25 over the forecast period, 2010 - 2014.
• Although Nextel will continue to receive the highest level of ARPU in the country, we expect that its ARPU level will be declining from PEN 81 in 2009 to approximately PEN 64 in 2014.
• We expect that Claro's monthly ARPU will be stable at about PEN 21.75 over the next several years.

Movistar's EBITDA margin to remain at about 44% over the next eight quarters

• We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/service revenue) in Peru will be about 37% over the next two years.
• We expect that Movistar will continue to have higher EBITDA margins than Claro. Our model predicts that EBITDA margin at Movistar will remain at approximately 44% over the next eight quarters.

Movistar Perú (Telefonica, S.A.)
Claro S.A. (America Movil S.A.B. DE C.V.)
Nextel del Perú S.A.

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