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Hard Copy
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Electronic (Excel)
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Enterprisewide
3Q10 Portugal Mobile Operator Forecast, 2010 - 2014
IE Market Research Corp, August 2010, Pages: 118
Mobile Operator Forecast on Portugal provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Portuguese wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2014. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 1Q2012. Operators covered for Portugal include: TMN -Telecomunicações Móveis Nacionais S.A., Vodafone Portugal, Comunicações Pessoais, S.A., and Optimus Telecomunicações, S.A. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast
TMN - Telecomunicações Móveis Nacionais S.A.
Vodafone Portugal, Comunicações Pessoais, S.A.
Optimus Telecomunicações, S.A.
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2014. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - March 2012
PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR -
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR
DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH)
MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD)
- Available only for TMN and Vodafone Portugal
Executive Summary
Subscriber growth is slowing down in Portugal's mobile operator space
+5.4 industry average subscriber growth in 1Q.2010
• The operator-wide subscriber growth (YoY) in Portugal's wireless market in 1Q.2010 was 5.4%, down from 9.1% in 1Q.2009.
• Optimus was the leader in subscriber growth in the country in 1Q.2010 with a 7.2% growth rate (down from 10.0% in 1Q.2009).
• The largest operator, TMN, saw its subscriber growth rate decline from 9.3% in 1Q.2009 to 4.4% in 1Q.2010.
• Vodafone Portugal's subscriber growth also declined from 8.3% in 1Q.2009 to 5.6% in 1Q.2010.
Negative ARPU growth continues across operators
-9.6% industry average ARPU growth in 1Q.2010
• The industry average monthly ARPU level dropped by -9.6% (YoY) to reach €15 in 1Q.2010.
• Vodafone's ARPU level remains higher than those of TMN and Optimus. Vodafone's monthly ARPU was approximately €17 in 1Q.2010, down -6.6% YoY.
• In comparison, monthly ARPUs at TMN and Optimus were approximately €15 and €14 respectively in 1Q.2010.
Minutes of Use per Subscriber are increasing
+5.0% industry average MOU growth in 1Q.2010
• The industry MOU/Sub (Minutes of User per Subscriber) was 125 minutes per month in 1Q.2010, up +5.0% from 1Q.2009.
• Optimus's MOU/Sub increased by +3.1% to reach 134 minutes per month in 1Q.2010.
• MOU/Sub growth rates at TMN and Vodafone were 6.5% and 4.7% respectively in 1Q.2010.
Vodafone's EBITDA increased significantly in the latest quarter
+37.2% industry average EBITDA growth in 1Q.2010
• The industry average EBITDA growth (YoY) was 37.2% in 1Q.2010, up from -13.2% in 1Q.2009.
• Vodafone Portugal's EBITDA was approximately €133 million in 1Q.2010, up +269% YoY.
• On the other hand, TMN's EBITDA growth rate declined from 1.8% in 1Q.2009 to -3.5% in 1Q.2010.
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
The number of mobile subscriber connections in Portugal to reach 17.9 million in 2014
• We forecast that the number of total wireless subscriber connections in Portugal will increase from 16.6 million in 2009 to 17.9 million in 2014.
• TMN, Vodafone Portugal and Optimus will see their subscriber base expand over the next five years. We expect TMN's subscriber base to increase from 7.25 million connections in 2009 to 7.47 million connections in 2014.
• Also, our model predicts that Vodafone Portugal and Optimus will have approximately 6.6 million and 3.9 million subscriber connections respectively by the end of 2014.
TMN's market share will decline over the next five years
• Although TMN will continue to be the largest mobile service provider in Portugal, we forecast that its subscriber market share will decline from 43.7% in 2009 to 41.6% in 2014.
• On the other hand, our model predicts that market shares of Vodafone Portugal and Optimus will be increasing over the next five years to reach 36.6% and 21.7% respectively in 2014.
ARPUs will continue to decline from 2010 to 2014
• All of the three wireless carriers will see their ARPUs decrease over the next five years. We forecast that the industry average monthly ARPU will fall from €16.28 in 2009 to €15 in 2014.
• Among the operators, Vodafone will continue to have higher ARPUs than TMN and Optimus. We expect that monthly ARPUs at TMN, Vodafone Portugal, and Optimus will also decline to approximately €14.80, €16, and €13.60 respectively in 2014.
TMN enjoys higher EBITDA margins than Vodafone Portugal and Optimus
• We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/service revenue) will remain at approximately 44% over the next two years.
• The operator with the highest level of profitability is TMN. Our model forecasts that TMN's EBITDA margin will remain at approximately 49% over the next eight quarters.
TMN - Telecomunicações Móveis Nacionais S.A.
Vodafone Portugal, Comunicações Pessoais, S.A.
Optimus Telecomunicações, S.A.
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