3Q10 South Korea Mobile Operator Forecast, 2010 - 2014
- ID: 1300919
- August 2010
- Region: South Korea
- 118 pages
- IE Market Research
Mobile Operator Forecast on South Korea provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the South Korean wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2014. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 1Q2012. Operators covered for South Korea include: SK Telecom Co., Ltd., KT Corp., and LG Uplus Corp. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast
SK Telecom Co., Ltd.
KT Corp. (Korea Telecom Freetel)
LG Uplus Corp. (LG Telecom)
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2014. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - March 2012
PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR
DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH)
MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD)
Stable wireless subscriber growth continues in South Korea
+5.9% industry average subscriber growth in 1Q.2010
• The operator-wide average subscriber growth (YoY) in 1Q.2010 was 5.9%, up from 4.4% in 1Q.2009.
• SK Telecom's subscriber growth was 6.3% in 1Q.2010, up from 4.4% in 1Q.2009.
• KT's subscriber growth (YoY) also increased from 4.4% in 1Q.2009 to 5.6% in 1Q.2010.
Negative ARPU growth across operators in the latest quarter
-3.3% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 1Q.2010
• The industry average ARPU growth (YoY) in 1Q.2010 was -3.3%, down from -2.3% in 1Q.2009. The industry average monthly ARPU was KRW 38,007 in 1Q.2010.
• KT's monthly ARPU growth was -7.1% in 1Q.2010, down from -1.5% in 1Q.2009.
• LG's ARPU growth was -3.8% in 1Q.2010, down from -0.1% in 1Q.2009.
Minutes of Use per Subscriber are decreasing slightly
-2.0% industry-wide average MOU/Sub growth in 1Q.2010
• The industry average Minutes of Use per Subscriber declined by -2.0% (YoY) to reach 300 minutes per month in 1Q.2010.
• At LG, MOU/Sub declined by -4.9% (YoY) to reach 309 minutes per month in 1Q.2010. LG's MOU/Sub remains the highest among operators. MOU/Sub at SK Telecom and KT were 296 minutes and 300 minutes respectively in 1Q.2010.
Strong EBITDA growth at KT and LG in the latest quarter
Industry average EBITDA growth was +7.4% in 1Q.2010
• The industry average EBITDA growth (YoY) declined from 15.3% in 1Q.2009 to 7.4% in 1Q.2010.
• EBITDA growth rates (YoY) at KT and LG were strong in 1Q.2010 at 22.2% and 15.8% respectively.
• On the other hand, SK Telecom's EBITDA growth declined from 3.1% in 1Q.2009 to -2.2% in 1Q.2010.
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
Total wireless subscriber connections in South Korea to reach 57.1 million in 2014
• We forecast that the number of mobile subscriber connections in South Korea will increase from 47.9 million in 2009 to 57.1 million in 2014.
• We expect that SK Telecom will continue to be the largest wireless carrier in the country with 29.4 million subscriber connections in 2014.
• Our model predicts that KT will have about 17.6 million mobile subscriber connections and LG will have about 10 million subscriber connections by the end of 2014.
SK Telecom's market share to increase over the next several years
• We forecast that SK Telecom will continue to lead South Korea in market shares. Our model predicts that SK Telecom's subscriber market share will increase from 50.6% in 2009 to 51.6% in 2014.
• We expect that subscriber market shares of KT and LG will be about 30.8% and 17.7% respectively in 2014.
ARPUs will be stabilizing in South Korea's wireless market
• Our model predicts that the industry average monthly ARPU in South Korea will decrease from KRW 39,300 in 2009 to about KRW 38,650 won in 2014.
• We expect that SK Telecom will continue to enjoy the highest level of ARPU in South Korea with monthly ARPU of about KRW 41,950 in 2014.
• In comparison, we forecast that monthly ARPU levels at KT and LG will be about KRW 36,300 and KRW 33,200 respectively in 2014.
SK Telecom will continue to enjoy higher level of profitability than KT and LG
• We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/service revenue) will remain at approximately 32% over the next eight quarters.
• At the operator level, we forecast that EBITDA margins at SK Telecom, KT, and LG will be approximately 34%, 33% and 23% respectively over the next two years.