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Hard Copy
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Electronic (Excel)
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Enterprisewide
3Q10 Thailand Mobile Operator Forecast, 2010 - 2014
IE Market Research Corp, August 2010, Pages: 118
Mobile Operator Forecast on Thailand provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for Thailand’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2014. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 1Q2012. Operators covered for Thailand include: Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited (AIS), Total Access Communication Public Company Limited (DTAC), True Corporation Public Company Limited (True Move), and Hutchison Telecommunications International Limited. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast
AIS (Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited)
DTAC (Total Access Communication Public Company Limited)
True Corporation Public Company Limited
Hutchison Telecommunications International Limited (For Hutchison, only the subscriber data is available.)
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2014. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - March 2012
PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR -
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR --
MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR --
DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) --
MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR --
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) --
MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH) --
MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) --
SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) --
SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR --
CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR --
(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR --
EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD) --
VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD) --
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) --
- Available only for AIS
-- Available only for AIS and DTAC
Executive Summary
Wireless subscriber growth is slowing down in Thailand
+7.1% industry average subscriber growth in 1Q.2010
• The operator-wide average subscriber growth (YoY) in 1Q.2010 was 7.1%, down from 13.2% in 1Q.2009.
• In 1Q.2010, True was still the leader in subscriber growth in Thailand with a 7.8% YoY growth rate (down from 20.5% in 1Q.2009).
• Subscriber growth rate at the largest operator, AIS (Advanced Info Service), was 7.0% in 1Q.2010, down from 9.9% in 1Q.2009.
• Subscriber growth at DTAC (Total Access Communication) also declined from 13.7% in 1Q.2009 to 7.1% in 1Q.2010.
Negative ARPU growth across operators in the latest quarter
-1.0% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 1Q.2010
• The industry average ARPU growth in 1Q.2010 was -1.0%, up from -16.4% in 1Q.2009.
• Monthly ARPU at AIS declined by -0.2% (YoY) to reach THB 249 in 1Q.2010.
• True's monthly ARPU also declined by -4.3% (YoY) to reach THB 112 in 1Q.2010.
Minutes of Use per Subscriber increased at both AIS and DTAC in the latest quarter
+7.6% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 1Q.2010
• The industry MOU/Sub growth (YoY) was 7.6% in 1Q.2010, up from -9.0% in 1Q.2009. The industry average MOU/Sub was 283 minutes in 1Q.2010.
• MOU/Sub at AIS increased by +7.6% (YoY) to reach 283 minutes per month in 1Q.2010. MOU/Sub at DTAC also increased to 275 minutes, up +9.6% from 251 minutes in 1Q.2009.
AIS and DTAC enjoy double-digit EBITDA growth rates
Industry average EBITDA growth was +13.9% in 1Q.2010
• The industry average EBITDA growth (YoY) was 13.9% in 1Q.2010, significantly up from -7.3% in 1Q.2009.
• DTAC's EBITDA growth rate (YoY) was particularly strong in 1Q.2010 at 25.9%, up from -16.6% in 1Q.2009.
• EBITDA growth rate (YoY) at AIS was also strong at 10.3% in 1Q.2010.
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
Total wireless subscriber connections in Thailand to increase to 75 million in 2014
• Given the latest quarter numbers, we forecast that the number of mobile subscriber connections in Thailand will increase from 65.3 million in 2009 to 75 million in 2014.
• AIS will continue to be the largest operator in the country with 32.2 million wireless subscriber connections in 2014.
• According to our model, DTAC will remain in second place with 22.3 million subscriber connections in 2014, and True will remain in third place with 18.9 million subscriber connections in 2014.
Market share of AIS will be declining slightly over the next five years
• Our model predicts that AIS will see its subscriber market share decline slightly from 44.0% in 2009 to 42.9% in 2014.
• We also forecast that subscriber market shares of DTAC and True will be approximately 29.8% and 25.2% respectively by the end of 2014.
True's ARPUs will continue to be much lower than ARPUs at AIS and DTAC
• We expect that the industry average monthly ARPU level in Thailand will remain at approximately THB 203 - THB 205 over the forecast period, 2010 - 2014.
• At the operator level, we expect that True's ARPU level will continue to be much lower than those of AIS and DTAC. Our model predicts that True's monthly ARPU will be THB 105 - THB 115 over the next five years. At AIS and DTAC, ARPUs will continue to be about twice as high as True's.
AIS's EBITDA margin to remain above 55% over the next eight quarters
• AIS will continue to enjoy the highest level of EBITDA margins (calculated as EBITDA/service revenue) in Thailand. We expect that its EBITDA margin will be about 55% over the next eight quarters.
• In comparison, our model predicts that EBITDA margins at DTAC and True will be approximately 40% and 31% respectively over the next two years.
AIS (Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited)
DTAC (Total Access Communication Public Company Limited)
True Corporation Public Company Limited
Hutchison Telecommunications International Limited
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