Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Movilnet (CA Nacional Telefonos de Venezuela (CANTV))
Movistar Venezuela (Telefonica S.A.)
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2014. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - March 2012
PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR -
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR --
MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR --
DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) --
MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR --
VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) --
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR --
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) --
MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH) ---
MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) ---
SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) ----
SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR ----
CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR ----
(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR ----
EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD) --
VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD) --
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) ----
- Not available for this country forecast
-- Available only for Movilnet
--- Available only for Movilnet and Movistar Venezuela
---- Available only for Movistar Venezuela
Subscriber growth is slowing down in Venezuela's wireless market
+4.0% industry average subscriber growth in 1Q.2010
• The operator-wide subscriber growth (YoY) was 4.0% in 1Q.2010, down from 15.0% in 1Q.2009.
• Digitel (Telvenco)'s subscriber growth (YoY) was the highest among operators at 14.9% in 1Q.2010 (up from 11.5% in 1Q.2009).
• Movilnet's subscriber growth was 6.1% in 1Q.2010 (down from 17.0% in 1Q.2010)
ARPUs are increasing rapidly across operators
+20.9% industry average ARPU growth in 1Q.2010
• The industry average monthly ARPU growth in 1Q.2010 was 20.9%, up from 19.4% in 1Q.2009.
• Movilnet's monthly ARPU increased by +22.5% (YoY) to reach VEF 49 in 1Q.2010.
• Movistar Venezuela and Digitel also kept their double-digit ARPU growth rates at 23.7% and at 19.0% respectively in 1Q.2010.
Minutes of Use per Subscriber are decreasing in Venezuela
-4.9% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 1Q.2010
• The industry average MOU/Sub growth (YoY) continues to be negative at -4.9% in 1Q.2010.
• In 1Q.2010, MOU/Sub at Movilnet and Movistar were 83 minutes and 114 minutes respectively.
Strong EBITDA growth at Movilnet and Digitel in the latest quarter
+5.0% industry average EBITDA growth in 1Q.2010
• The industry average EBITDA growth rate in 1Q.2010 was 5.0% in 1Q.2010, down from 36.8% in 1Q.2009.
• Movilnet saw its EBITDA growth rate increase significantly from -0.8% in 1Q.2009 to 22.2% in 1Q.2010. Digitel's EBITDA growth rate was also strong at 26.2% in 1Q.2010.
• On the other hand, EBITDA growth (YoY) at Movistar declined from 47.3% in 1Q.2009 to -1.4% in 1Q.2010.
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
The number of total subscriber connections in Venezuela to reach 35.6 million in 2014
• The number of mobile phone users who have multiple phone numbers is increasing, and this has caused wireless penetration rates to exceed 100% in many markets around the world. The wireless penetration rate in Venezuela was 102.0% in 1Q.2010.
• We expect that the number of wireless subscriber connections in Venezuela will increase from 29.3 million in 2009 to about 35.6 million in 2014.
• Our model predicts that Movilnet will have approximately 15.8 million mobile subscribers by the end of 2014.
Digitel's subscriber market share will be increasing over the next five years
• Movilnet will continue to be the largest operator in the country with a subscriber market share of 44.3% in 2014, according to our model.
• We expect that Digitel's market share will increase from 21.5% in 2009 to about 23.6% in 2014.
• On the other hand, we forecast that Movistar's market share will be declining over the next several years to reach 32.1% by the end of 2014.
ARPU levels in Venezuela will be increasing from 2010 to 2014
• ARPUs will continue to rise in Venezuela. We forecast that the industry average monthly ARPU will increase from VEF 46 in 2009 to VEF 59 in 2014.
• Movistar will continue to receive the highest monthly ARPU among the Venezuelan operators. We forecast that its monthly ARPU will increase to VEF 84 in 2014.
• On the other hand, Digitel's monthly ARPU will remain much lower at approximately VEF 25 - VEF 26 over the forecast period, 2010 to 2014.
Movistar will continue to enjoy higher level of profitability than Movilnet and Digitel
• Movistar's EBITDA margin is one of the highest in the world. We expect that Movistar's EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA / service revenue) will remain at about 60% over the next two years.
• In contrast, we expect that Movilnet's EBITDA margin will remain in the range of 18% - 19% over the next eight quarters.