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Hong Kong Telecommunications Report Q3 2010
Business Monitor International, July 2010, Pages: 97
Business Monitor International's Hong Kong Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Hong Kong's telecommunications industry.
BMI’s Q3 2010 Telecommunications Report on Hong Kong contains updated forecasts following the publication by Hong Kong’s telecoms regulator, the Office of the Telecommunications Authority (OFTA). The regulator published end-of-year figures for the number of mobile subscribers at the end of 2009, allowing us to provide a more accurate picture of the position of the country’s five mobile network operators, of which three, Hutchison 3G, SmarTone and PCCW Mobile, had published customer figures. Furthermore, OFTA also released March 2010 data for both the fixed-line and broadband sectors, which allowed us to reflect on our forecasts through to the end of 2014.
According to the regulator, there were 12.207mn mobile subscribers in the sector at the end of 2009, reflecting growth of 7.3% since the end of 2008. This exceeded BMI’s expectations as expressed in our previous quarterly update. The stronger-than-expected growth was the result of a large number of inactive prepaid users and dual SIM card owners in the country, which also resulted in high penetration rates of 173%. Meanwhile, Hong Kong operators continue to report strong growth in the number of postpaid and 3G subscribers. According to OFTA, Hong Kong had 3.819mn 3G subscribers at the end of 2009, reflecting y-o-y growth of 35.8% since YE08; this is equivalent to 31.3% of the total mobile market. The results for the total mobile subscriber base in 2009 led us to revise upwards our forecast to 2014, reaching close to a penetration rate of 191%.
As for the latest regulatory data, the number of fixed telephone lines fell to 3.684mn as of March 2010, which was down from 3.668m at the end of 2009. During 2009, the number of lines contracted by 1.2%. Although Q110’s performance reflected a decline in fixed lines, in line with 2009’s performance, it remains difficult to say whether this rate of decline marks the start of a period of accelerated decline or whether it reflects a long-term trend of steady, but fluctuating decline. However, while we noted that business fixed lines fell by 0.2% during 2009, in the first quarter of 2010, they rose by 0.2%, while residential fixed lines fell by 1.1% in 2009, and by 0.4% during Q110. In terms of the residential fixedline decline in Q110, it is notable that there was an increase in residential VoIP customers; however, this was not the case for business VoIP, which declined.
According to the regulator, Hong Kong had 2.080mn broadband subscribers at the end of Q110, reflecting 20,000 net additions in the first quarter, up from 2.060mn subscribers. With penetration rates at more than 29%, BMI predicts that the sector will experience a slowdown in growth over our forecast period ended 2014.
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