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Singapore Telecommunications Report Q3 2010
Business Monitor International, July 2010, Pages: 93
Business Monitor International's Singapore Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Singapore's telecommunications industry.
Our Q310 updated Singapore Telecommunications Report market contains revised forecasts for the country’s mobile and 3G subscriber markets, as well as the internet user and broadband subscriber sectors. Our forecasts and market analysis sections make full use of new data published by the operators and Singapore’s regulatory authority, the IDA, for the first three months of 2010.
At the end of 2009, Singapore had a total of 6.857mn mobile subscribers, equivalent to a penetration rate of 140.1% and reflecting year-on-year (y-o-y) growth of by 8.2%. Although this was a strong performance given the high penetration rate, we now predict that Singapore’s mobile market will expand by 1.9% in 2010. Our new predication for the sector is based on operator data for the first quarter of the year. Based on data published by mobile market leader SingTel, as well as smaller market rivals StarHub and M1, the Singaporean mobile customer base grew by just 0.4% in the first three months of 2010. The reason for the weak growth related to the deduction of inactive prepaid customers by SingTel from its reported total. We continue to believe that the figures reported by all three operators include both inactive and active subscribers. Consequently, we believe that further customer deductions are highly likely going forward. This will result in much weaker mobile market growth than we have seen of late.
Despite new efforts to deduct inactive prepaid customers from their reported user base, Singapore’s operators continue to report strong growth in the number of contract customers and 3G subscribers. At the end of 2009, Singapore had 3.181mn 3G subscribers, accounting for 46.4% of the total mobile market. Increased competition in the sector, together with increased smartphone penetration rates, is expected to drive the use of mobile data services and applications over the next few years, positively impacting the 3G market. In addition investment in upgrading mobile networks to HSPA+ and trials of LTE should aid network capacity as greater traffic occurs. In 2010, we now predict that the 3G subscriber market will grow by almost 20% to surpass 3.8mn subscribers. However, in the latter years of our forecast, we now expect growth in Singapore’s 3G subscriber market to slow significantly. Slowing growth reflects an increasingly saturated market and the need to take into account only active mobile customers when assessing the growth potential of the 3G market.
Recent developments of note in Singapore’s telecoms market include the February announcement that M1 had successfully carried out tests on M1’s trial Long Term Evolution (LTE) network, with transmission speeds reaching 100Mbps on a data call. It has been suggested that M1 could be ready to launch its socalled ‘4G’ LTE mobile broadband network by Q211. Meanwhile, in March, Singapore’s IDA, the market regulator, announced a public consultation which aims to provide a framework for the introduction of ultra-high speed mobile communication systems, such as LTE and mobile WiMAX. Singapore remains in second place in BMI’s latest Business Environment Ratings for Asia Pacific. This is in spite of receiving a lower score on the Telecom Market category. The slightly lower score partly reflects the slowdown in mobile customer growth, prompted by SingTel’s move to deduct inactive prepaid users. It also reflects the weaker contract ARPU rates reported by the operators in Q110.
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