Ireland Food and Drink Report Q3 2010

Ireland Food and Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, food and drink associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Ireland's food and drink industry.

The prognosis from Ireland over the last quarter remains gloomy. For example, trade body Drinks Industry Group of Ireland (DIGI) released its annual update for 2009, revealing that around 15,000 jobs evaporated in the industry over the last 18 months and more cuts are likely in 2010. Weak consumer spending, lost trade to Northern Ireland and fewer visiting tourists have seen per capita alcohol consumption in the Republic of Ireland slip back to the levels of the mid-1990s. Drinks volume sales fell by 9% in 2009, following a 6% drop in 2008. DIGI predicted a further 5% fall in 2010, with the on-trade continuing to be hit disproportionately hard. According to DIGI chairman Kieran Tobin, ‘as predicted, 2009 turned out to be an even poorer year than 2008 for drinks sales and consumption in Ireland, meaning that it was the worst year for our industry in living memory.’

Meanwhile, one of Ireland’s leading drinks players C&C Group announced the sale of its spirits and liqueurs division to UK-based William Grant for EUR300mn. The sale, subject to shareholder approval, will allow the firm to focus on its core cider operations as it attempts to return to growth in what is now a highly competitive sector. The firm has said that proceeds from the sale will be used for debt reduction and general corporate purposes. However, with the sale set to bring down the firm's pro forma 2009/10 net debt to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation ratio to 0.6 times, the move could actually be the prelude to further expansion in its favoured categories. The sprits unit to be sold includes a number of niche Irish brands including Tullamore Dew and Irish Mist. The division generated sales of EUR85.9mn in 2009, representing around 20% of the firm's total turnover. The move is therefore set to have a fairly significant impact on the company's top line and with the division having performed reasonably well in recent years, when compared to the poorly performing cider unit, the move is a significant statement that the firm will do whatever it takes to get its more important cider unit moving back towards growth. Further acquisitions to boost its negotiating muscle look a likely next step. In the food sector, leading group Glanbia announced plans in April to split its Irish dairy business Dairy Ireland from its international consumer products unit following successful negotiations with the Glanbia Cooperative Society, which owns 54.6% of the firm. The deal will see publicly listed Glanbia retain ownership of the international food business, which is primarily focused on US cheese and nutrition, while the cooperative will purchase control of the Irish dairy unit for an estimated EUR343mn. The move will free Glanbia to focus on higher growth areas and should put the firm in a strong position to build on its recent international expansion. The company said the deal will reshape the business as the split will leave it as a pure-play consumer products entity, which should be better placed to deliver consistent growth and be less susceptible to swings in global commodity prices. However, at a meeting of Glanbia

Cooperative Society's farmer-owners, the required majority of 75% needed to progress the acquisition was not achieved, with only 73% voting in favour of the deal. The outcome remains unclear, although it is expected that the deal will be revived. SHOW LESS READ MORE >

Executive Summary

SWOT Analysis

Ireland Food Industry SWOT
Ireland Drink Industry SWOT
Ireland Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT

Business Environment
BMI’s Core Global Industry Views
Table: BMI’s Core Views For The Food & Drink Industry
Western Europe Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings
Western Europe Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings Q3 2010
Ireland Food & Drink Business Environment Rating
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Ireland – Economic Activity

Food
Industry Forecast Scenario
Total Food Consumption
Table: Ireland Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts
Trade
Food & Drink Trade Balance - Historical Data & Forecasts
Industry Developments
Market Overview
Overview of Food Sector
Confectionery
Prepared Food

Drink
Industry Forecast Scenario
Soft Drinks And Bottled Water
Table: Soft Drink Volume and Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
Alcoholic Drinks
Table: Alcoholic Drink Volume and Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
Industry Developments
Market Overview
Soft Drinks
Soft Drinks Sales Breakdown in Ireland, 2008 BMI Estimates
Alcoholic Drinks
Alcoholic Drinks Sales Breakdown in Ireland, 2008 BMI Estimates

Mass Grocery Retail
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Ireland MGR Sector - Sales Value by Format - Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Organised Retail Market Share – Historical Data And Forecasts
Industry Developments
Market Overview
Table: Structure Of Ireland's Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number Of Outlets

Table: Sales Formats By Value In Ireland's Mass Grocery Retail Market (EURbn), 2002-2008
Table: Annual Average Sales per Outlet by Format - 2008

Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Players in Ireland's Food Sector
Drink
Table: Key Players in Irelands's Drink Sector
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Key Players in Irelands's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
Company Analysis
Food
Kerry Group
Greencore
Drink
C&C
Mass Grocery Retail
Tesco Ireland
Appendix

BMI Methodology
Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings
Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Ratings System
Indicators
Table: Limits Of Potential Returns
Table: Risks To Realisation Of Potential Returns
Weighting
Table: Weighting
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary
Food & Drink
Mass Grocery Retail
BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sourcing

- Kerry Group
- Greencore
- C&C
- Tesco Ireland