Contents:

TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.........................................................................................................................................I SECTION 1 INTRODUCTION TO THE ANTIVIRAL DRUG RESISTANCE MARKET............................... 1 1.1 SCOPE AND OBJECTIVES OF RESEARCH INVESTIGATION........................................................... 1 1.2 METHODOLOGY OF INVESTIGATION................................................................................................ 1 1.3 LIMITATIONS OF INVESTIGATION ..................................................................................................... 2 SECTION 2 CYTOMEGALOVIRUS (CMV) ......................................................................................................... 5 2.1 INTRODUCTION TO THE DISEASE STATE......................................................................................... 5 2.2 ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF PRODUCT TECHNOLOGY ............................................................ 6 2.2.1 Current Drug Therapy...................................................................................................................... 6 2.2.2 Forecast Drug Therapy .................................................................................................................... 6 2.2.3 New Product and Pipeline Direction................................................................................................ 8 2.3 ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF THE MARKET ............................................................................... 10 2.3.1 Market Characteristics.................................................................................................................. 10 2.3.2 Market Drivers and Forecast ......................................................................................................... 13 SECTION 3 HEPATITIS B .................................................................................................................................... 15 3.1 INTRODUCTION TO THE DISEASE STATE....................................................................................... 15 3.2 FORECAST OF PRODUCT TECHNOLOGY......................................................................................... 16 3.2.1 Current Drug Therapy.................................................................................................................... 16 3.2.2 Forecast Drug Therapy .................................................................................................................. 16 3.2.3 New Product and Pipeline Direction.............................................................................................. 17 3.3 ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF THE MARKET ............................................................................... 22 3.3.1 Market Characteristics.................................................................................................................. 22 3.3.2 Market Drivers and Forecast ......................................................................................................... 25 SECTION 4 HEPATITIS C .................................................................................................................................... 29 4.1 INTRODUCTION TO THE DISEASE STATE....................................................................................... 29 4.2 FORECAST OF PRODUCT TECHNOLOGY......................................................................................... 30 4.2.1 Current Drug Therapy.................................................................................................................... 30 4.2.2 Forecast Drug Therapy .................................................................................................................. 30 4.2.3 New Product and Pipeline Direction.............................................................................................. 32 4.3 ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF THE MARKET ............................................................................... 35 4.3.1 Market Characteristics.................................................................................................................. 35 4.3.2 Market Drivers and Forecast ......................................................................................................... 38 SECTION 5 HERPES.............................................................................................................................................. 43 5.1 INTRODUCTION TO THE DISEASE STATE....................................................................................... 43 5.2 ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF PRODUCT TECHNOLOGY .......................................................... 44 5.2.1 Current Drug Therapy.................................................................................................................... 44 5.2.2 Forecast Drug Therapy .................................................................................................................. 45 5.2.3 New Product and Pipeline Direction.............................................................................................. 46 5.3 ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF THE MARKET ............................................................................... 50 5.3.1 Market Characteristics.................................................................................................................. 50 5.3.2 Market Drivers and Forecast ......................................................................................................... 52 SECTION 6 HIV...................................................................................................................................................... 55 6.1 INTRODUCTION TO THE DISEASE STATE....................................................................................... 55 6.2 ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF PRODUCT TECHNOLOGY .......................................................... 56 6.2.1 Current Drug Therapy.................................................................................................................... 56 6.2.2 Forecast Drug Therapy .................................................................................................................. 56 6.2.3 New Product and Pipeline Direction.............................................................................................. 61 6.3 ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF THE MARKET ............................................................................... 71 6.3.1 Market Characteristics.................................................................................................................. 71 6.3.2 Market Drivers and Forecast ......................................................................................................... 75 SECTION 7 HUMAN PAPILLOMA VIRUS ........................................................................................................ 85 7.1 INTRODUCTION TO THE DISEASE STATE....................................................................................... 85 7.2 ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF PRODUCT TECHNOLOGY .......................................................... 86 7.2.1 Current Drug Therapy.................................................................................................................... 86 7.2.2 Forecast Drug Therapy .................................................................................................................. 86 7.2.3 New Product and Pipeline Direction.............................................................................................. 87 7.3 ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF THE MARKET ............................................................................... 89 7.3.1 Market Characteristics.................................................................................................................. 89 7.3.2 Market Drivers and Forecast ......................................................................................................... 92 SECTION 8 INFLUENZA...................................................................................................................................... 95 8.1 INTRODUCTION TO THE DISEASE STATE....................................................................................... 95 8.2 ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF PRODUCT TECHNOLOGY .......................................................... 97 8.2.1 Current Drug Therapy.................................................................................................................... 97 8.2.2 Forecast Drug Therapy .................................................................................................................. 97 8.2.3 New Product and Pipeline Direction.............................................................................................. 99 8.3 ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF THE MARKET ............................................................................. 101 8.3.1 Market Characteristics................................................................................................................ 101 8.3.2 Market Drivers ............................................................................................................................. 105 SECTION 9 RESPIRATORY VIRAL INFECTIONS ........................................................................................ 109 9.1 INTRODUCTION TO THE DISEASE STATE..................................................................................... 109 9.2 FORECAST OF PRODUCT TECHNOLOGY....................................................................................... 111 9.2.1 Current Drug Therapy.................................................................................................................. 111 9.2.2 Forecast Drug Therapy ................................................................................................................ 111 9.2.3 New Product and Pipeline Direction............................................................................................ 112 9.3 ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF THE MARKET ............................................................................. 114 9.3.1 Market Characteristics................................................................................................................ 114 9.3.2 Market Drivers ............................................................................................................................. 117 SECTION 10 ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLVING COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT IN THE PHARMACEUTICAL SEGMENT OF THE ANTIVIRAL THERAPY MARKET ........... 119 10.1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................. 119 10.2 DETERMINANTS OF MARKETPLACE SUCCESS ........................................................................... 119 10.3 COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS OF PARTICIPATING MANUFACTURERS ........................................ 120 10.3.1 Financial Strength, Staying Power, And Funding Capability ...................................................... 121 10.3.2 Marketing Expertise Determines Success..................................................................................... 121 10.3.3 Distribution Channel Leverage Determines Success.................................................................... 122 10.3.4 Technological and Clinical Development/Trial Expertise ........................................................... 123 10.3.5 Passion for Innovation ................................................................................................................. 124 10.3.6 Emotional and Portfolio Commitment to Marketplace................................................................. 124 10.3.7 Management Capability Determines Success............................................................................... 124 10.3.8 Summary Analysis of Determinants of Success ............................................................................ 124 10.4 MARKET ANALYSIS ........................................................................................................................... 125 10.5 FINAL RANKINGS FOR SELECTED COMPANIES.......................................................................... 128 SECTION 11 COMPANIES THAT HAVE PORTFOLIO INTEREST IN ANTIVIRAL THERAPY .......... 131 11.1 3M (MINNESOTA MINING & MANUFACTURING) ........................................................................ 131 11.2 ABBOTT................................................................................................................................................ 132 11.3 AKZO NOBEL ...................................................................................................................................... 134 11.4 AMERICAN HOME PRODUCTS......................................................................................................... 135 11.5 ASTRAZENECA................................................................................................................................... 136 11.6 AVENTIS............................................................................................................................................... 137 11.7 BAYER.................................................................................................................................................. 139 11.8 BAXTER INTERNATIONAL ............................................................................................................... 140 11.9 BOEHRINGER INGELHEIM................................................................................................................ 141 11.10 BRISTOL- MYERS SQUIBB ................................................................................................................ 142 11.11 CHIRON ................................................................................................................................................ 143 11.12 DUPONT PHARMACEUTICALS......................................................................................................... 144 11.13 ELI LILLY............................................................................................................................................. 146 11.14 FUJISAWA............................................................................................................................................ 147 11.15 GENZYME............................................................................................................................................ 147 11.16 GLAXOSMITHKLINE .......................................................................................................................... 148 11.17 JOHNSON & JOHNSON ....................................................................................................................... 152 11.18 MERCK ................................................................................................................................................. 153 11.19 MERCK KGAA..................................................................................................................................... 154 11.20 NOVARTIS ........................................................................................................................................... 155 11.21 PFIZER .................................................................................................................................................. 155 11.22 SCHERING-PLOUGH ........................................................................................................................... 156 11.23 SERONO................................................................................................................................................ 158 11.24 ROCHE.................................................................................................................................................. 158 11.25 VALENTIS ............................................................................................................................................ 161 LIST OF FIGURES Figure ES- 1 Total Antiviral Market Historic and Forecast Sales (1996-2010) ($ In Millions) .......................... ix Figure 2.1 US Forecast for CMV Therapy by Technology Platform................................................................. 8 Figure 2.2 Historic and Forecast Sales of CMV Agents by Technology – 2000 – 2005 – 2010 .................... 12 Figure 3.1 Forecast for Hepatitis B Therapy by Technology Platform............................................................ 18 Figure 3.2 Historic and Forecast Sales of Hepatitis B Agents by Technology – 2000 – 2005 – 2010 ........... 24 Figure 4.1 US Forecast for Hepatitis C Therapy by Technology Platform...................................................... 32 Figure 4.2 Historic and Forecast Sales of Hepatitis C Agents by Technology – 2000 – 2005 – 2010 ........... 37 Figure 5.1 US Forecast for Herpes Therapy by Technology Platform ............................................................ 46 Figure 5.2 Historic and Forecast Sales of Herpes Agents by Technology – 2000 – 2005 – 2010 .................. 51 Figure 6.1 Forecast for HIV Therapy by Technology Platform....................................................................... 60 Figure 6.2 Historic and Forecast Sales of HIV Agents by Technology – 2000 – 2005 – 2010 ...................... 74 Figure 7.1 Forecast for HPV Therapy by Technology Platform...................................................................... 87 Figure 7.2 Historic and Forecast Sales of HPV Agents by Technology – 2000 – 2005 – 2010 ..................... 91 Figure 8.1 US Forecast for Influenza Therapy by Technology Platform......................................................... 99 Figure 8.2 Historic and Forecast Sales of Influenza Agents by Technology – 2000 – 2005 – 2010 ............ 104 Figure 9.1 US Forecast for RSV Therapy by Technology Platform.............................................................. 112 Figure 9.2 Historic and Forecast Sales of Respiratory Synctial Virus Agents by Technology 2000 – 2005 – 2010.......................................................................................................................................... 115 LIST OF TABLES Table ES- 1 Number of Antiviral Therapy Development Programs by Indication and Clinical Status ............. vii Table ES-3 Number of Antiviral Therapy Development Programs by Indication and Technology Platform.. viii Table ES-4 Antiviral Therapeutics Estimated 2000 and Projected 2010 Sales by Indication ($ In Millions).. viii Table ES-5 Antiviral Therapeutics 2000 Sales by Company and Indication ($ In Millions) ............................ ix Table ES-5 Overall Strategic Ranking of Selected Companies........................................................................... x Table ES-7 Overall Rating Scale of Selected Companies .................................................................................. xi Table 2.1 Number of Product Development Programs for CMV by Technology Platform............................. 8 Table 2.2 Product Development Activity for CMV Therapy ........................................................................... 9 Table 2.3 Historic and Forecast Sales of CMV Agents by Technology 1990-2012 ($ In Millions) ............. 11 Table 2.4 US Factory Sales By Manufacturer and Brand 1998 to 2000 ($ In Millions) ................................ 11 Table 3.1 Number of Product Development Programs for HBV by Technology Platform............................ 18 Table 3.2 Product Development Activity for HBV Therapy.......................................................................... 20 Table 3.3 Historic and Forecast Sales of Hepatitis B Agents by Technology 1990-2012 ($ In Millions)..... 23 Table 3.4 US Factory Sales By Manufacturer and Brand 1998 to 2000 ($ In Millions) ................................ 23 Table 4.1 Number of Product Development Programs for Hepatitis C by Technology Platform.................. 34 Table 4.2 Product Development Activity for Hepatitis C Therapy ................................................................ 34 Table 4.3 Historic and Forecast Sales of Hepatitis C Agents by Technology 1990-2012 ($ In Millions)..... 36 Table 4.4 US Factory Sales By Manufacturer and Brand 1998 to 2000 ($ In Millions) ................................ 37 Table 5.1 Number of Product Development Programs for Herpes by Technology Platform......................... 47 Table 5.2 Product Development Activity for Herpes Therapy....................................................................... 49 Table 5.3 Historic and Forecast Sales of Herpes Agents by Technology 1990-2012 ($ In Millions) ........... 50 Table 5.4 US Factory Sales By Manufacturer and Brand 1998 to 2000 ($ In Millions) ................................ 51 Table 6.1 Number of Product Development Programs for HIV by Technology Platform............................. 61 Table 6.2 Product Development Activity for HIV Therapy ........................................................................... 67 Table 6.3 Historic and Forecast Sales of HIV Agents by Technology 1990-2012 ($ In Millions) ............... 72 Table 6.4 US Factory Sales By Manufacturer and Brand 1998 to 2000 ($ In Millions) ................................ 73 Table 7.1 Number of Product Development Programs for HPV by Technology Platform............................ 88 Table 7.2 Product Development Activity for HPV Therapy .......................................................................... 89 Table 7.3 Historic and Forecast Sales of HPV Agents by Technology 1990-2012 ($ In Millions)............... 90 Table 7.4 US Factory Sales By Manufacturer and Brand 1998 to 2000 ($ In Millions) ................................ 90 Table 8.1 Number of Product Development Programs for Influenza by Technology Platform................... 100 Table 8.2 Product Development Activity for Influenza Therapy ................................................................. 101 Table 8.3 Historic and Forecast Sales of Influenza Agents by Technology 1990-2012 ($ In Millions) ..... 102 Table 8.4 US Factory Sales By Manufacturer and Brand 1998 to 2000 ($ In Millions) .............................. 103 Table 9.1 Number of Product Development Programs for Influenza by Technology Platform................... 113 Table 9.2 Product Development Activity for Respiratory Viral Therapy..................................................... 113 Table 9.3 Historic and Forecast Sales of Respiratory Synctial Virus Agents by Technology 1990-2012 ($ In Millions) .............................................................................................................................. 114 Table 9.4 US Factory Sales By Manufacturer and Brand 1998 to 2000 ($ In Millions) .............................. 115 Table 10.1 Selected Companies' Number of Antiviral Therapy Development Programs by Clinical Status . 126 Table 10.2 Selected Pharmaceutical Companies' Antiviral Therapy Programs in Development by Technology Platform.................................................................................................................... 126 Table 10.3 Selected Companies' Antiviral Therapy Sales by Indication........................................................ 127 Table 10.4 Selected Companies' Antiviral Therapy Development Programs by Indication........................... 127 Table 10.5 Overall Strategic Ranking of Selected Companies....................................................................... 128 Table 10.6 Overall Rating Scale of Selected Companies ............................................................................... 129

Summary:

The antiviral market defined in this report includes the following disease indications: -Cytomegalovirus (CMV) -Hepatitis B -Hepatitis C –Herpes -Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) -Human papillomavirus (HPV) –Influenza -Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)