Contents:

Antiviral Drug Licensing Opportunities SUMMARY TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY......................................................................................................................................... i SECTION 1 INTRODUCTION TO ANTIVIRAL THERAPEUTICS.................................................................. 1 1.1 SCOPE AND OBJECTIVES OF RESEARCH INVESTIGATION........................................................... 1 1.2 METHODOLOGY OF INVESTIGATION................................................................................................ 1 1.3 LIMITATIONS OF INVESTIGATION ..................................................................................................... 2 1.4 INTRODUCTION TO VIRAL DISEASES AND THEIR THERAPY...................................................... 3 1.5 GLOSSARY OF ANTIVIRAL TERMS..................................................................................................... 6 SECTION 2 DELPHI PANEL AND THOUGHT LEADER INTERVIEW: DISCUSSION AND SUMMARY OF ANTIVIRAL THERAPEUTICS INNOVATION............................................................... 23 2.1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................... 23 2.2 RESULTS OF DELPHI PANEL INTERVIEWS: HIV/AIDS.................................................................. 23 2.3 RESULTS OF DELPHI PANEL INTERVIEWS: HEPATITIS B AND C .............................................. 43 2.4 RESULTS OF DELPHI PANEL INTERVIEWS: HERPESVIRUSES.................................................... 62 2.5 RESULTS OF DELPHI PANEL INTERVIEWS: OTHER VIRAL INFECTIONS................................. 68 2.6 DELPHI SUMMARY............................................................................................................................... 70 SECTION 3 HIV/AIDS BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT AND INNOVATION OPPORTUNITIES ................. 73 3.1 INTRODUCTION TO THE DISEASE STATE....................................................................................... 73 3.2 INNOVATIVE ACTIVITIES UNDER WAY.......................................................................................... 75 3.3 PRODUCT TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS AND FORECAST ................................................................ 83 3.4 MARKET ANALYSIS AND FORECAST .............................................................................................. 97 3.5 EVALUATION OF LICENSING OPPORTUNITIES – RATINGS AND RANKINGS......................... 97 SECTION 4 HEPATITIS B BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT AND INNOVATION OPPORTUNITIES ........ 113 4.1 INTRODUCTION TO THE DISEASE STATE..................................................................................... 113 4.2 INNOVATIVE ACTIVITIES UNDER WAY........................................................................................ 114 4.3 PRODUCT TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS AND FORECAST .............................................................. 118 4.4 MARKET ANALYSIS AND FORECAST ............................................................................................ 123 4.5 EVALUATION OF LICENSING OPPORTUNITIES – RATINGS AND RANKINGS....................... 124 SECTION 5 HEPATITIS C BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT AND INNOVATION OPPORTUNITIES ........ 131 5.1 INTRODUCTION TO THE DISEASE STATE..................................................................................... 131 5.2 INNOVATIVE ACTIVITIES UNDER WAY........................................................................................ 132 5.3 PRODUCT TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS AND FORECAST .............................................................. 137 5.4 MARKET ANALYSIS AND FORECAST ............................................................................................ 142 5.5 EVALUATION OF LICENSING OPPORTUNITIES – RATINGS AND RANKINGS....................... 143 SECTION 6 HERPES SIMPLEX BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT AND INNOVATION OPPORTUNITIES149 6.1 INTRODUCTION TO THE DISEASE STATE..................................................................................... 149 6.2 INNOVATIVE ACTIVITIES UNDER WAY........................................................................................ 150 6.3 PRODUCT TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS AND FORECAST .............................................................. 153 6.4 MARKET ANALYSIS AND FORECAST ............................................................................................ 156 6.5 EVALUATION OF LICENSING OPPORTUNITIES – RATINGS AND RANKINGS....................... 157 SECTION 7 OTHER VIRAL INFECTIONS BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT AND INNOVATION OPPORTUNITIES.................................................................................................................... 163 7.1 INTRODUCTION TO THE DISEASE STATES................................................................................... 163 7.2 INNOVATIVE ACTIVITIES UNDER WAY........................................................................................ 170 7.3 PRODUCT TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS AND FORECAST .............................................................. 173 7.4 MARKET ANALYSIS AND FORECAST ............................................................................................ 181 7.5 EVALUATION OF LICENSING OPPORTUNITIES -- RATINGS AND RANKINGS ...................... 184 SECTION 8 TECHNOLOGY PLATFORMS...................................................................................................... 193 8.1 LOW-MOLECULAR-WEIGHT THERAPEUTICS ..............................................................................193 8.2 VACCINES............................................................................................................................................. 200 8.3 ANTIBODIES......................................................................................................................................... 202 8.4 IMMUNOTHERAPY ............................................................................................................................. 203 8.5 MOLECULAR THERAPIES ................................................................................................................. 205 8.6 VIRAL ENTRY INHIBITORS............................................................................................................... 207 SECTION 9 COMPANY PROFILES OF INNOVATIVE FIRMS REPRESENTING ACQUISITIONS, LICENSING, AND COMARKETING OPPORTUNITIES IN ANTIVIRAL THERAPY . 209 9.1 ACAMBIS .............................................................................................................................................. 209 9.2 ACHILLION........................................................................................................................................... 210 9.3 ALPHAVAX........................................................................................................................................... 210 9.4 AMRAD.................................................................................................................................................. 211 9.5 ANORMED ............................................................................................................................................ 212 9.6 APHIOS .................................................................................................................................................. 212 9.7 AVANT IMMUNOTHERAPEUTICS ................................................................................................... 213 9.8 AVIRON................................................................................................................................................. 214 9.9 BIOKEYS PHARMACEUTICALS ....................................................................................................... 215 9.10 BIOVECTOR THERAPEUTICS ........................................................................................................... 215 9.11 CEL-SCI ................................................................................................................................................. 216 9.12 CHEIL JEDANG .................................................................................................................................... 216 9.13 CROMPTON CORPORATION ............................................................................................................. 217 9.14 CSL ...................................................................................................................................................... 218 9.15 DYNAVAX ............................................................................................................................................ 218 9.16 ENZO BIOCHEM................................................................................................................................... 219 9.17 EPICYTE................................................................................................................................................ 219 9.18 EPIMMUNE ........................................................................................................................................... 220 9.19 GILEAD SCIENCES.............................................................................................................................. 221 9.20 HOLLIS-EDEN ...................................................................................................................................... 221 9.21 HUGHES INSTITUTE........................................................................................................................... 222 9.22 HUMAN GENOME SCIENCES............................................................................................................ 222 9.23 INSTITUT PASTEUR............................................................................................................................ 223 9.24 INTRACEL............................................................................................................................................. 224 9.25 ISIS PHARMACEUTICALS.................................................................................................................. 224 9.26 LG CHEMICAL ..................................................................................................................................... 225 9.27 MEDICHEM LIFE SCIENCES.............................................................................................................. 225 9.28 MEDIGENE AG..................................................................................................................................... 226 9.29 MEDIMMUNE....................................................................................................................................... 227 9.30 MEDIVIR................................................................................................................................................ 228 9.31 ML LABORATORIES ........................................................................................................................... 228 9.32 NABI ...................................................................................................................................................... 229 9.33 NATIONAL INSTITUTES OF HEALTH.............................................................................................. 229 9.34 NOVIRIO PHARMACEUTICALS........................................................................................................ 230 9.35 ORIGENIX ............................................................................................................................................. 231 9.36 OXO CHEMIE........................................................................................................................................ 231 9.37 OXXON PHARMACCINES .................................................................................................................. 232 9.38 PIERRE FABRE..................................................................................................................................... 232 9.39 POWDERJECT....................................................................................................................................... 233 9.40 PREVISAN SA....................................................................................................................................... 233 9.41 PRODIGENE.......................................................................................................................................... 234 9.42 PROGENICS .......................................................................................................................................... 234 9.43 RIBOZYME PHARMACEUTICALS.................................................................................................... 235 9.44 SAMJIN .................................................................................................................................................. 235 9.45 SHIRE PHARMACEUTICALS ............................................................................................................. 236 9.46 SUPRATEK............................................................................................................................................ 236 9.47 TARGETED GENETICS ....................................................................................................................... 237 9.48 TRIANGLE PHARMACEUTICALS..................................................................................................... 238 9.49 TRIMERIS.............................................................................................................................................. 238 9.50 TULARIK............................................................................................................................................... 239 9.51 VALENTIS ............................................................................................................................................. 240 9.52 VERTEX................................................................................................................................................. 240 9.53 VICAL .................................................................................................................................................... 242 9.54 VIROPHARMA...................................................................................................................................... 242 9.55 ZYCOS ................................................................................................................................................... 243 9.56 ZYMETX................................................................................................................................................ 244 DETAILED TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY................................................................................................................................................i SECTION 1 INTRODUCTION TO ANTIVIRAL THERAPEUTICS.................................................................. 1 1.1 SCOPE AND OBJECTIVES OF RESEARCH INVESTIGATION........................................................... 1 1.2 METHODOLOGY OF INVESTIGATION................................................................................................ 1 1.3 LIMITATIONS OF INVESTIGATION ..................................................................................................... 2 1.4 INTRODUCTION TO VIRAL DISEASES AND THEIR THERAPY...................................................... 3 1.5 GLOSSARY OF ANTIVIRAL TERMS..................................................................................................... 6 SECTION 2 DELPHI PANEL AND THOUGHT LEADER INTERVIEW: DISCUSSION AND SUMMARY OF ANTIVIRAL THERAPEUTICS INNOVATION............................................................... 23 2.1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................... 23 2.2 RESULTS OF DELPHI PANEL INTERVIEWS: HIV/AIDS.................................................................. 23 Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy (HAART) and Other Low-Molecular-Weight Therapeutics ...............................23 Immunotherapies.............................................................................................................................................................32 Other Therapies ...............................................................................................................................................................38 Overviews .......................................................................................................................................................................41 2.3 RESULTS OF DELPHI PANEL INTERVIEWS: HEPATITIS B AND C .............................................. 43 Introduction to Viral Hepatitis.........................................................................................................................................43 Difficulties in HCV Research..........................................................................................................................................47 Vaccines ..........................................................................................................................................................................48 Cytokines (and Combination Therapy)............................................................................................................................49 Sustained Response or Cure for HCV .............................................................................................................................57 Low-Molecular-Weight Therapeutics..............................................................................................................................57 Thoughts on Future Therapies.........................................................................................................................................58 2.4 RESULTS OF DELPHI PANEL INTERVIEWS: HERPESVIRUSES.................................................... 62 Introduction to the Herpesviruses....................................................................................................................................62 Nucleoside Analogs and Other Low-Molecular-Weight Therapeutics ............................................................................64 Topicals ...........................................................................................................................................................................66 Vaccines ..........................................................................................................................................................................66 Cytomegalovirus (CMV).................................................................................................................................................67 2.5 RESULTS OF DELPHI PANEL INTERVIEWS: OTHER VIRAL INFECTIONS................................. 68 2.5.1 Influenza........................................................................................................................................ 68 2.5.2 Human Papillomavirus (HPV) ....................................................................................................... 69 2.5.3 Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) ................................................................................................. 70 2.6 DELPHI SUMMARY............................................................................................................................... 70 2.6.1 Current Therapeutic Regimens....................................................................................................... 70 2.6.2 Future Treatments .......................................................................................................................... 71 SECTION 3 HIV/AIDS BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT AND INNOVATION OPPORTUNITIES ................. 73 3.1 INTRODUCTION TO THE DISEASE STATE....................................................................................... 73 Characteristics .................................................................................................................................................................73 Etiology...........................................................................................................................................................................73 Epidemiology ..................................................................................................................................................................74 HIV Mutation and Drug Resistance ................................................................................................................................74 Treatment ........................................................................................................................................................................74 3.2 INNOVATIVE ACTIVITIES UNDER WAY.......................................................................................... 75 3.3 PRODUCT TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS AND FORECAST ................................................................ 83 Assumption Structure ......................................................................................................................................................85 Current Therapeutics .......................................................................................................................................................86 Near-term Therapeutics ...................................................................................................................................................90 Longer-term Therapeutics ...............................................................................................................................................93 3.4 MARKET ANALYSIS AND FORECAST .............................................................................................. 97 3.5 EVALUATION OF LICENSING OPPORTUNITIES – RATINGS AND RANKINGS......................... 97 SECTION 4 HEPATITIS B BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT AND INNOVATION OPPORTUNITIES ........ 113 4.1 INTRODUCTION TO THE DISEASE STATE..................................................................................... 113 Characteristics ...............................................................................................................................................................113 Etiology.........................................................................................................................................................................113 Epidemiology ................................................................................................................................................................113 Treatment ......................................................................................................................................................................114 4.2 INNOVATIVE ACTIVITIES UNDER WAY........................................................................................ 114 4.3 PRODUCT TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS AND FORECAST .............................................................. 118 Assumption Structure ....................................................................................................................................................119 Current Therapeutics/Prophylactics...............................................................................................................................119 Future Therapeutics/Prophylactics ................................................................................................................................122 4.4 MARKET ANALYSIS AND FORECAST ............................................................................................ 123 4.5 EVALUATION OF LICENSING OPPORTUNITIES – RATINGS AND RANKINGS....................... 124 SECTION 5 HEPATITIS C BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT AND INNOVATION OPPORTUNITIES ........ 131 5.1 INTRODUCTION TO THE DISEASE STATE..................................................................................... 131 Characteristics ...............................................................................................................................................................131 Etiology.........................................................................................................................................................................131 Epidemiology ................................................................................................................................................................131 Treatment ......................................................................................................................................................................132 5.2 INNOVATIVE ACTIVITIES UNDER WAY........................................................................................ 132 5.3 PRODUCT TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS AND FORECAST .............................................................. 137 Assumption Structure ....................................................................................................................................................139 Current Therapeutics .....................................................................................................................................................140 Future Therapeutics.......................................................................................................................................................141 5.4 MARKET ANALYSIS AND FORECAST ............................................................................................ 142 5.5 EVALUATION OF LICENSING OPPORTUNITIES – RATINGS AND RANKINGS....................... 143 SECTION 6 HERPES SIMPLEX BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT AND INNOVATION OPPORTUNITIES149 6.1 INTRODUCTION TO THE DISEASE STATE..................................................................................... 149 Characteristics ...............................................................................................................................................................149 Etiology.........................................................................................................................................................................149 Epidemiology ................................................................................................................................................................150 Treatment ......................................................................................................................................................................150 6.2 INNOVATIVE ACTIVITIES UNDER WAY........................................................................................ 150 6.3 PRODUCT TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS AND FORECAST .............................................................. 153 Assumption Structure ....................................................................................................................................................154 Current Therapeutics .....................................................................................................................................................155 Future Therapeutics.......................................................................................................................................................156 6.4 MARKET ANALYSIS AND FORECAST ............................................................................................ 156 6.5 EVALUATION OF LICENSING OPPORTUNITIES – RATINGS AND RANKINGS....................... 157 SECTION 7 OTHER VIRAL INFECTIONS BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT AND INNOVATION OPPORTUNITIES.................................................................................................................... 163 7.1 INTRODUCTION TO THE DISEASE STATES................................................................................... 163 7.1.1 Influenza...................................................................................................................................... 163 Characteristics ...............................................................................................................................................................163 Etiology.........................................................................................................................................................................164 Epidemiology ................................................................................................................................................................164 Diagnosis.......................................................................................................................................................................165 Treatment ......................................................................................................................................................................165 7.1.2 Human Papillomavirus................................................................................................................. 165 Characteristics ...............................................................................................................................................................165 Etiology.........................................................................................................................................................................166 Epidemiology ................................................................................................................................................................166 Treatment ......................................................................................................................................................................166 7.1.3 Cytomegalovirus.......................................................................................................................... 166 Characteristics ...............................................................................................................................................................166 Etiology.........................................................................................................................................................................167 Epidemiology ................................................................................................................................................................167 Treatment ......................................................................................................................................................................167 7.1.4 Respiratory Syncytial Virus.......................................................................................................... 168 Characteristics ...............................................................................................................................................................168 Etiology.........................................................................................................................................................................168 Epidemiology ................................................................................................................................................................169 Prevention .....................................................................................................................................................................169 Diagnosis.......................................................................................................................................................................169 Treatment ......................................................................................................................................................................170 7.2 INNOVATIVE ACTIVITIES UNDER WAY........................................................................................ 170 Influenza........................................................................................................................................................................170 Human Papillomavirus ..................................................................................................................................................171 Cytomegalovirus ...........................................................................................................................................................172 Respiratory Syncytial Virus...........................................................................................................................................173 7.3 PRODUCT TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS AND FORECAST .............................................................. 173 Assumption Structure ....................................................................................................................................................175 7.4 MARKET ANALYSIS AND FORECAST ............................................................................................ 181 Influenza........................................................................................................................................................................181 Human Papillomavirus ..................................................................................................................................................182 Cytomegalovirus ...........................................................................................................................................................182 Respiratory Syncytial Virus...........................................................................................................................................184 7.5 EVALUATION OF LICENSING OPPORTUNITIES -- RATINGS AND RANKINGS ...................... 184 SECTION 8 TECHNOLOGY PLATFORMS...................................................................................................... 193 8.1 LOW-MOLECULAR-WEIGHT THERAPEUTICS ..............................................................................193 8.1.1 Nucleoside Analogs ...................................................................................................................... 193 Overview.......................................................................................................................................................................193 Strengths........................................................................................................................................................................193 Shortcomings.................................................................................................................................................................194 Examples of Nucleoside Analogs..................................................................................................................................194 Forecast Role.................................................................................................................................................................195 8.1.2 Non-nucleoside Analogs............................................................................................................... 195 Overview.......................................................................................................................................................................195 Strengths........................................................................................................................................................................196 Shortcomings.................................................................................................................................................................196 Examples of Non-nucleoside Analogs...........................................................................................................................196 Forecast Role.................................................................................................................................................................196 8.1.3 Protease Inhibitors ....................................................................................................................... 197 Overview.......................................................................................................................................................................197 Strengths........................................................................................................................................................................197 Shortcomings.................................................................................................................................................................198 Examples of Protease Inhibitors ....................................................................................................................................198 Forecast Role.................................................................................................................................................................199 8.1.4 Other LMW Therapeutics ............................................................................................................. 199 8.2 VACCINES............................................................................................................................................. 200 Overview.......................................................................................................................................................................200 Strengths........................................................................................................................................................................202 Shortcomings.................................................................................................................................................................202 Forecast Role.................................................................................................................................................................202 8.3 ANTIBODIES......................................................................................................................................... 202 Overview.......................................................................................................................................................................202 Strengths........................................................................................................................................................................203 Shortcomings.................................................................................................................................................................203 Forecast Role.................................................................................................................................................................203 8.4 IMMUNOTHERAPY ............................................................................................................................. 203 8.4.1 Cytokines and Cytokine Modulators............................................................................................. 203 Overview.......................................................................................................................................................................203 Strengths........................................................................................................................................................................204 Shortcomings.................................................................................................................................................................204 Forecast Role.................................................................................................................................................................204 8.4.2 Other Immunomodulators ............................................................................................................ 204 Overview.......................................................................................................................................................................204 Strengths........................................................................................................................................................................204 Shortcomings.................................................................................................................................................................205 Forecast Role.................................................................................................................................................................205 8.5 MOLECULAR THERAPIES ................................................................................................................. 205 8.5.1 Antisense/Ribozymes .................................................................................................................... 205 Overview.......................................................................................................................................................................205 Strengths........................................................................................................................................................................206 Shortcomings.................................................................................................................................................................206 Forecast Role.................................................................................................................................................................206 8.5.2 Gene Therapy ............................................................................................................................... 206 Overview.......................................................................................................................................................................206 Strengths........................................................................................................................................................................207 Shortcomings.................................................................................................................................................................207 Forecast Role.................................................................................................................................................................207 8.6 VIRAL ENTRY INHIBITORS............................................................................................................... 207 Overview.......................................................................................................................................................................207 Strengths........................................................................................................................................................................208 Shortcomings.................................................................................................................................................................208 Forecast Role.................................................................................................................................................................208 SECTION 9 COMPANY PROFILES OF INNOVATIVE FIRMS REPRESENTING ACQUISITIONS, LICENSING, AND COMARKETING OPPORTUNITIES IN ANTIVIRAL THERAPY . 209 9.1 ACAMBIS .............................................................................................................................................. 209 9.2 ACHILLION........................................................................................................................................... 210 9.3 ALPHAVAX........................................................................................................................................... 210 9.4 AMRAD.................................................................................................................................................. 211 9.5 ANORMED ............................................................................................................................................ 212 9.6 APHIOS .................................................................................................................................................. 212 9.7 AVANT IMMUNOTHERAPEUTICS ................................................................................................... 213 9.8 AVIRON................................................................................................................................................. 214 9.9 BIOKEYS PHARMACEUTICALS ....................................................................................................... 215 9.10 BIOVECTOR THERAPEUTICS ........................................................................................................... 215 9.11 CEL-SCI ................................................................................................................................................. 216 9.12 CHEIL JEDANG .................................................................................................................................... 216 9.13 CROMPTON CORPORATION ............................................................................................................. 217 9.14 CSL ...................................................................................................................................................... 218 9.15 DYNAVAX ............................................................................................................................................ 218 9.16 ENZO BIOCHEM................................................................................................................................... 219 9.17 EPICYTE................................................................................................................................................ 219 9.18 EPIMMUNE ........................................................................................................................................... 220 9.19 GILEAD SCIENCES.............................................................................................................................. 221 9.20 HOLLIS-EDEN ...................................................................................................................................... 221 9.21 HUGHES INSTITUTE........................................................................................................................... 222 9.22 HUMAN GENOME SCIENCES............................................................................................................ 222 9.23 INSTITUT PASTEUR............................................................................................................................ 223 9.24 INTRACEL............................................................................................................................................. 224 9.25 ISIS PHARMACEUTICALS.................................................................................................................. 224 9.26 LG CHEMICAL ..................................................................................................................................... 225 9.27 MEDICHEM LIFE SCIENCES.............................................................................................................. 225 9.28 MEDIGENE AG..................................................................................................................................... 226 9.29 MEDIMMUNE....................................................................................................................................... 227 9.30 MEDIVIR................................................................................................................................................ 228 9.31 ML LABORATORIES ........................................................................................................................... 228 9.32 NABI ...................................................................................................................................................... 229 9.33 NATIONAL INSTITUTES OF HEALTH.............................................................................................. 229 9.34 NOVIRIO PHARMACEUTICALS........................................................................................................ 230 9.35 ORIGENIX ............................................................................................................................................. 231 9.36 OXO CHEMIE........................................................................................................................................ 231 9.37 OXXON PHARMACCINES .................................................................................................................. 232 9.38 PIERRE FABRE..................................................................................................................................... 232 9.39 POWDERJECT....................................................................................................................................... 233 9.40 PREVISAN SA....................................................................................................................................... 233 9.41 PRODIGENE.......................................................................................................................................... 234 9.42 PROGENICS .......................................................................................................................................... 234 9.43 RIBOZYME PHARMACEUTICALS.................................................................................................... 235 9.44 SAMJIN .................................................................................................................................................. 235 9.45 SHIRE PHARMACEUTICALS ............................................................................................................. 236 9.46 SUPRATEK............................................................................................................................................ 236 9.47 TARGETED GENETICS ....................................................................................................................... 237 9.48 TRIANGLE PHARMACEUTICALS..................................................................................................... 238 9.49 TRIMERIS.............................................................................................................................................. 238 9.50 TULARIK............................................................................................................................................... 239 9.51 VALENTIS ............................................................................................................................................. 240 9.52 VERTEX................................................................................................................................................. 240 9.53 VICAL .................................................................................................................................................... 242 9.54 VIROPHARMA...................................................................................................................................... 242 9.55 ZYCOS ................................................................................................................................................... 243 9.56 ZYMETX................................................................................................................................................ 244 LIST OF FIGURES Figure ES 1 Product Development Activity in Antiviral Therapy by Disease State ................. iv Figure ES 2 Product Development Activity in Antiviral Therapy by Phase of Development.... v Figure ES 3 Product Development Activity in HIV Therapy by Phase of Development ........... v Figure ES 4 Active Development Programs in Each Viral Area by Phase of Development ..... vi Figure ES 5 Active Development Programs in Each Phase of Development by Viral Area ..... vi Figure ES 6 Unpartnered vs. Partnered Programs by Phase of Development .......................... vii Figure ES 7 US Market Activity in 2000 by Disease State........................................................ xi Figure ES 8 US Market Activity in 2005 by Disease State........................................................ xi Figure ES 9 US Market Activity in 2010 by Disease State.......................................................xii Figure 3.1 Market Impact Matrix for Technology Platforms in HIV Therapy ...................... 85 Figure 3.2 WW Forecast for HIV Therapy by Technology Platform..................................... 86 Figure 4.1 Market Impact Matrix for Technology Platforms in Hepatitis B Therapy ......... 120 Figure 4.2 WW Forecast for Hepatitis B Therapy by Technology Platform........................ 121 Figure 5.1 Market Impact Matrix for Technology Platforms in Hepatitis C Therapy ......... 139 Figure 5.2 WW Forecast for Hepatitis C Therapy by Technology Platform........................ 140 Figure 6.1 Market Impact Matrix for Technology Platforms in Herpes Simplex Therapy.. 154 Figure 6.2 WW Forecast for Herpes Simplex Therapy by Technology Platform ................ 155 Figure 7.1 Market Impact Matrix for Technology Platforms in Influenza Therapy ............ 175 Figure 7.2 Market Impact Matrix for Technology Platforms in HPV Therapy.................... 176 Figure 7.3 Market Impact Matrix for Technology Platforms in CMV Therapy .................. 177 Figure 7.4 Market Impact Matrix for Technology Platforms RSV Therapy........................ 178 Figure 7.5 WW Forecast for Influenza Therapy by Technology Platform........................... 178 Figure 7.6 WW Forecast for HPV Therapy by Technology Platform.................................. 179 Figure 7.7 WW Forecast for CMV Therapy by Technology Platform................................. 179 Figure 7.8 WW Forecast for RSV Therapy by Technology Platform.................................. 180 Antiviral Drug Licensing Opportunities LIST OF TABLES Table ES 1 US Market Forecast for All Antiviral Therapy by Technology.............................. x Table ES 2 Opportunity Sorting Matrix for All Antiviral Therapies by Total Score ............. xiv Table ES 3 Opportunity Sorting Matrix for All Antiviral Therapies by Indication ................ xv Table ES 4 Opportunity Sorting Matrix for All Antiviral Therapies by Company ................ xvi Table 1.1 Pathogenic Viruses.................................................................................................. 4 Table 3.1 Product Development Activity for HIV Therapy by Phase of Development ....... 84 Table 3.2 Currently US Approved NRTIs............................................................................. 87 Table 3.3 Currently US Approved NNRTIs.......................................................................... 88 Table 3.4 Currently US Approved PIs .................................................................................. 89 Table 3.5 US Market Forecast for HIV Therapy by Technology ......................................... 98 Table 3.6 Opportunity Sorting Matrix for HIV Therapy ...................................................... 99 Table 3.7 Product Development Activity for HIV Therapy................................................ 105 Table 4.1 Product Development Activity for Hepatitis B Therapy by Phase of Development ....................................................................................................... 119 Table 4.2 US Market Forecast for Hepatitis B Therapy by Technology ............................ 123 Table 4.3 Opportunity Sorting Matrix for Hepatitis B Therapy ......................................... 125 Table 4.4 Product Development Activity for Hepatitis B Therapy..................................... 128 Table 5.1 Product Development Activity for Hepatitis C Therapy by Phase of Development ....................................................................................................... 138 Table 5.2 US Market Forecast for Hepatitis C Therapy by Technology ............................ 142 Table 5.3 Opportunity Sorting Matrix for Hepatitis C Therapy ......................................... 144 Table 5.4 Product Development Activity for Hepatitis C Therapy..................................... 147 Table 6.1 Product Development Activity for Herpes Simplex Therapy by Phase of Development ....................................................................................................... 153 Table 6.2 US Market Forecast for Herpes Simplex Therapy by Technology..................... 157 Table 6.3 Opportunity Sorting Matrix for Herpes Simplex Therapy.................................. 158 Table 6.4 Product Development Activity for Herpes Simplex Therapy ............................. 160 Table 7.1 Product Development Activity for Other Viral Indications by Phase of Development ....................................................................................................... 174 Table 7.2 US Market Forecast for Influenza by Technology.............................................. 182 Table 7.3 US Market Forecast for Human Papillomavirus by Technology........................ 183 Table 7.4 US Market Forecast for Cytomegalovirus by Technology ................................. 183 Table 7.5 US Market Forecast for Respiratory Syncytial Virus by Technology ................ 184 Table 7.6 Opportunity Sorting Matrix for Other Viral Indications..................................... 185 Table 7.7 Product Development Activity for Other Viral Indications ................................ 188

Summary:

This report is designed to provide a useful tool to professionals in research and development (R&D), marketing, business development, licensing, and strategic planning who are, or are anticipating, involvement in the discovery, development, licensing, and/or marketing of therapeutics for the treatment of HIV/AIDS, hepatitis B, hepatitis C, herpes simplex, and other viral diseases.