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Executing Change: Survival Strategies of Big Biotech

Decision Resources, Inc., Aug 2010, Pages: 42


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Economic pressures have forced Big Biotech companies to reevaluate their business strategies in order to minimize costs and prioritize therapy areas that will drive top-line growth. In this report, we look at four Big Biotech companies and analyze their business strategies for growth and survival as independent entities. Why has Amgen’s market cap fallen 41% from year-end 2005 to year-end 2009, while Gilead’s has risen by 62% and Biogen Idec’s has remained unchanged? What does Cephalon hope to achieve with its drastically changed business model? We assess company strategies and deals and acquisitions that have played into the evolution of these Big Biotech companies. We discuss the advantages to be obtained from a merger of equals between two of these companies and discuss the advantages that Sanofi -Aventis might obtain through the acquisition of a fifth Big Biotech, namely Genzyme.

Questions Answered in this Report

Amgen’s market capitalization dropped from $97 million at year-end 2005 to $57 million at year-end 2009. What is the market cap and financial status of other Big Biotech companies? How do Big Biotech companies plan to return value to shareholders? What is Cephalon’s philosophy for reinvesting profits into internal R&D?

With 2009 worldwide sales of $14.4 billion, Amgen is the world’s largest independent biotech company. Despite Amgen’s great successes, why must the company be considered “seriously at risk?” What are Decision Resources analysts’ 2016 forecasts for Amgen brands in the United States and the rest of the world? On what factors do Amgen’s future growth prospects depend? What companies are developing biosimilars of Amgen brands? What business strategies is Amgen adopting, and what are the company’s recent dealmaking activities?

Biogen Idec faces strategic threats to its product line, therapy area positions, and independence. What is in Biogen Idec’s R&D pipeline? Why is the company vulnerable? What three factors will have a major influence on Biogen Idec’s future? With a new CEO, board chairman, and larger board of directors in the aftermath of shareholder Carl Icahn’s intervention, what is likely to be the next step for Biogen Idec?

In early 2010, Cephalon drastically changed its business model. What life-cycle management strategies is Cephalon using? What regions of the world does Cephalon plan to expand to? What strategies does Cephalon’s CEO envision for expanding into Chinese markets and why? What business strategies is Cephalon adopting, and what are the company’s recent dealmaking activities? Why is Cephalon’s CEO a believer in balance?

In 2009, Gilead Sciences ranked second only to GlaxoSmithKline in the antivirals market. What percentage of Gilead’s worldwide sales depends on antivirals? What are the company’s plans to expand beyond antivirals, and what are investors concerns? What will undo some of Gilead’s recent progress in becoming less dependent on antivirals? What is the company’s approach to dealmaking? What activity cannot be Gilead’s first choice as a commercialization strategy?

Scope

Drugs: Global sales and Decision Resources analysts’ sales forecasts, fixed-dose combinations, patent expiry, brands, biologics, biosimilars, small molecules, black box warnings, Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), isomers, follow-on, R&D pipeline, monoclonal antibodies (MAbs), small-molecule drugs, oral formulations, companion diagnostics, drug profiling, generics, branded generics, active pharmaceutical ingredient (API), ANDAs, tentative FDA approvals.

Deals: Mergers and acquisitions, in-licensing, hostile takeover, product acquisition, option agreements, co-development and collaboration, venture financing, recent Big Biotech dealmaking activities.

Therapy areas/diseases: HIV/AIDS, antivirals, cystic fibrosis, rheumatoid arthritis (RA), musculoskeletal/ pain, dermatology, hematology, hepatitis B, influenza A and B, pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH), age-related macular degeneration, chronic angina, cytomegalovirus retinitis, inflammation, oncology, asthma, leukemia, systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), multiple myeloma, sleep disorders, narcolepsy, obstructive sleep apnea/hypopnea, shift-work sleep disorder, Stevens-Johnson syndrome, non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma (NHL), multiple sclerosis (MS), hyponatremia, heart failure, hemophilia B, Alzheimer’s disease, non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC), Parkinson’s disease, central nervous system (CNS) disorders, osteoporosis, diabetes, anemia, psoriasis, renal disease, neutropenia, immune thrombocytopenic purpura (ITP), chemotherapy-induced thrombocytopenia (CIT), myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS).

Pharmaceutical markets: Generics, biosimilars, branded generics, innovative brands, China, certain central eastern European countries, emerging markets, Japan, North America, non-U.S. markets, United States, South America, India, specialist markets, South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan.

Financials: Financial comparisons of six Big Biotech companies, Nasdaq Biotechnology Index (NBI), Dow Jones Industrial Average, market capitalization, global sales, sales growth, CAGR (2005-2009), R&D spend, therapy area sales, gross profit, pretax profit, net income, cash, debt, EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization), share buyback programs, Icahn Partners proxy battles.

Business strategies: Diversification, life-cycle management, share buyback programs, pure-play research company, President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), cross-company collaborations, outsourcing, marketing, in-licensing, acquisitions, mergers and acquisitions (M&As), debt, generics, biosimilars, branded generics, fully integrated operations, market expansion, fixed-dose combinations, growth markets, personalized medicine, diagnostics, Sanofi -Aventis acquisition possibilities, Big Biotech mergers.

Special features of this report include:

- Big Biotech’s financial landscape
- Strategies being adopted by Big Biotech.
- Recent deal-making activities by four Big Biotech companies.
- Decision Resources analysts’ forecasts of key brands’ global 2016 sales.

Key Terms for this report:

Big Biotech, Biologics, Branded generics, Business strategies, Cross company collaboration, Diversification, Emerging markets, Indication expansion, In-licensing, Life-cycle management, Merger and acquisition (M&A), Merger of equals, Product acquisition, Rare disease business model, Vertical integration



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