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Wireless Network Traffic 2010–2015: Forecasts and Analysis
Analysys Mason Group, July 2010, Pages: 75
Growth in data volumes, take-up of new data devices and increasing mobile penetration are driving a substantial rise in wireless network traffic worldwide – but not at the phenomenal rates that some forecasters have claimed. Our prediction of ten- to twenty-fold growth in traffic volumes over the next five years (depending on the geographical region) is far more likely than claims of one-hundred-fold increases or more. Nevertheless, it is still a dramatic rise and will have a significant impact on operators' strategies.
The combination of rapid growth in traffic volumes and slow growth in revenue is putting increasing pressure on operators' profit margins. There has never been a time when operators have needed to plan their network roll-outs more carefully. Investing in HSPA and LTE networks is important, but operators need to take into account the ongoing decline in revenue per megabyte. As our forecasts demonstrate, they will need to abandon flat-rate pricing models – and sooner than they might think.
Our report provides a balanced view of traffic growth, which will prove valuable to vendors and investors that seek a contrasting view to some of the claims in the marketplace, as well as to operators as they formulate their plans for the next five years.
Wireless network traffic 2010–2015: forecasts and analysis provides a five-year forecast of wireless network traffic split into:
- eight geographical regions: Western Europe, North America, Developed Asia–Pacific, Central and Eastern Europe, Central and Latin America, Emerging Asia–Pacific, the Middle East and North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa.
- five device types: basic mobile phones, smartphones, PC-based mobile broadband devices, other MBB devices (such as tablets) and M2M devices.
The data series cover the:
- growth in mobile connections
- proportion of smartphones and netbooks
- ratio of voice to data services
- growth in wireless network traffic
- average wireless network traffic per connection
- proportion of indoor usage
- proportion of VoIP traffic
- decline in revenue per gigabyte of mobile broadband traffic.
The report also discusses the following drivers of wireless traffic growth:
- improvements to cellular devices
- network technology evolution
- new services
- pricing and bundling
- increasing usage of mobile devices while indoors
- the increasing number of mobile connections.
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