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Ghana Agribusiness Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Aug 2010, Pages: 45
Ghana Agribusiness service provides proprietary medium term price forecasts for key commodities, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, cocoa, coffee, soy and milk; in addition to newly-researched competitive intelligence on leading agribusiness producers, traders and suppliers; in-depth analysis of latest industry developments; and essential industry context on Ghana's agribusiness service.
BMI View: To 2014, we expect strong production growth across most Ghanaian agricultural sub-sectors thanks to a growing domestic customer base on the back of strong economic growth and thanks to increased government support. However, despite forecast output improvements, government support is still falling short of the level necessary to dramatically improve and modernise the sector, with cocoa battling against smuggling due to higher prices in neighbouring Cote D'Ivoire and poultry battling against imports from lower cost producers in Europe and North America.
Key Forecasts
- Cocoa Production to increase by 5% year-on-year to 696,000 in 2009/10
- Cocoa Production to increase by 22% over the 5-year forecast period to 2013/14 thanks to increased access to fertilizer and the resultant positive impact on production yields
- Poultry Production to increase by 92.1% to 2014 thanks to industry commercialisation and greater government support
- Corn and Sorghum Production to increase by 58.2% and 35.7% respectively to 2013/14 thanks to increased domestic demand, greater processed goods demand and improved export opportunities
Key Views
It will be interesting to observe what impact, if any, forthcoming Ghanaian oil production will have on the country's agricultural industry. Improved government revenues could be used to support the agricultural sector, which is a major employer. Conversely, increased revenues could detract from investment in less high-return areas of the economy.
To 2014, Ghanaian real GDP growth is forecast to average an impressive 10.2% annually. The accordant increase in demand for agricultural products that this strong economic growth will trigger will place a growing strain on the country's food import bill. However, it will also create opportunities for producers, particularly producers of commodities that find their way into processed goods and integrated producers who have the capacity to both farm and process their output.
Key Risks
The key risk to our agricultural production forecasts is that government support falls short resulting in greater competition from imports and increased smuggling and eventually resulting in producers exiting the industry due to a lack of profitability. This would necessitate downward revisions to our positive, but hardly explosive, existing output forecasts.
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