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Syria Defence and Security Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Sep 2010, Pages: 70
The Syria Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Syria's defence and security industry.
Syria faces a myriad of problems, both internally and externally, which severely impede development of the defence sector. The widespread drought, which is in its third year, has forced large numbers of people to leave their homes - resulting in a significant international refugee problem. While the Assad regime still retains a tight grip on control, the inflationary pressure resulting from the drought is fuelling a simmering wave of discontent.
At the political level, Syria has nonetheless seen significant gains in recent months with international support for stronger ties. The announcement in July that Lebanon, Turkey, Jordan and Syria would form an economic council to establish a free trade zone adds credence to the country's international status. The free trade zone is aimed at increasing competitiveness, supporting scientific research and building a strategic partnership to strengthen trade exchange between the four countries. .Russia also recently announced plans to invest in a substantial upgrade to its Mediterranean naval base near the Syrian port of Tartus.
The economic picture remains clouded by the ongoing drought however economic reforms promise potential of large investment inflows going forward. Relations with the West remain a key influence on economic growth rates. Recent events, such as the accusation that Syria was supplying SCUD missiles to Hizbollah, continue to dampen potential development and thwart US-Syrian relations.
The pace of economic reform appears to have picked up over the past year, probably in response to adverse global and domestic conditions. As with neighbouring Lebanon, Syria has shrugged off the effects of the global financial crisis and economic slowdown, and recorded an estimated 5.9% real GDP growth in 2009. We see a slowdown in 2010, mainly due to base effects and the lagged effect of the drought on consumption. However, foreign investment continues apace, and financing conditions are improving. We see above average growth rates over the coming five years (4.7% between 2010 and 2014, compared with a global average of 3.5%, and a MENA average of 3.8%). The key risk to our outlook is lack of political focus, at present. However, despite some cabinet reshuffles, we believe that the government's commitment to liberalisation remains strong.
This report is available as a one-off PDF or as a yearly subscription, which consists of four issues per year.
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