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Turkey Defence and Security Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Sep 2010, Pages: 85
The Turkey Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Turkey's defence and security industry.
Turkey's role as a regional power is shifting as the country continues to see an evolution in it foreign policy.. This seems to have been prompted by increasingly assertive positions on a variety of issues (e.g. standing up to Israel over the Gaza blockade, and vetoing new UN sanctions on Iran) adopted by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has been steering Turkey away from its traditional pro-Western alignment in favour of closer ties with Russia, the Middle East, and other emerging economies.
The announcement by Lebanon, Turkey, Jordan and Syria that they will form an economic council to establish a free trade zone is also expected to boost influence. The free trade zone is aimed at increasing competitiveness, supporting scientific research and building a strategic partnership to strengthen trade exchange between the four countries. While this will provide benefits in the form of diversified foreign trade and investment, it will also elevate political uncertainty and potentially accentuate domestic social divisions.
In a military context, Turkey is expected to continue in its position as one of the world’s largest arms importers. Within NATO, the country currently has the second-largest armed forces. However a potentially weakening economy and changing risk profile may impact budgets moving forward. Domestic frictions present the most immediate security risk for the country. Tensions remain between religious groups, such as the ruling AK Party, and secularist institutions - such as the military and the judiciary. However, it is very unlikely that this will translate into serious threats such as large scale policy reversal or a military coup as witnessed in 1980s or 1990s.
At present, leading indicators point towards strong performance for the Turkish economy in H210. As a result , we have revised up our 2010 real GDP growth forecast to 6.3% from 4.7% previously. Though external demand is still expected to begin to slow this year, we note that a vibrant domestic consumer segment provides a favourable backdrop for the economy to remain a regional outperformer.
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