Romania Food and Drink Report Q4 2010

Business Monitor International, September 2010, Pages: 96

The Romania Food and Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, food and drink associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Romania's food and drink industry.

Our expectations for Romania’s food and beverages spending are modest. The performance of the markets for the remainder of the current year will be shaped by the recent increase in the value-added tax (VAT) to 25%, which has in turn led the central bank to upwardly revise inflation figures, as well as high unemployment levels. As consumer confidence is far from recovered in relation to pre-crisis levels, we expect that discretion will continue to be exercised in regards to purchases of foodstuffs and beverages, with premium items to suffer the most.

Headline Industry Data - 2010 per capita food consumption = +2.40; forecast to 2014 = +12.01%

- 2010 alcoholic drinks sales = +0.24%; forecast to 2014 = +16.32%

- 2010 soft drinks sales = +3.58%; forecast to 2014 = +24.63%

- 2010 mass grocery retail = +6.50%; forecast to 2014 = +44.11%

Key Company Trends:

Foreign Players Increasing Stakes in Local Companies – In July 2010, a 54% stake in Romanian dairy distributor Delaco was acquired by French Bongrain SA, which deals in cheese and dairy products, having been given a green light by regulatory authorities. The Romanian arm of confectionery giant Cadbury – Kandia-Excelent – is to be sold to international investment fund Oryxa Capital, as part of ongoing efforts to meet European Commission competitive requirements following Kraft's acquisition of Cadbury in Q110. Global and regional confectionery giants Hershey, Nestlé and Ülker were all linked with Kandia-Excelent, which is particularly strong in sugar confectionery and chocolates. Finally, although the deal is currently being assessed by the local competition authorities, German mass grocery retail (MGR) player Lidl has moved to take over compatriot Tengelmann’s retail chain Plus, both in Romania and in Bulgaria.

Key Risks to Outlook:

Economic Woes – While early signs have been positive, we caution that the Romanian economic recovery will remain fragile, with weaker external demand and the overhang of high unemployment preventing a return to pre-crisis rates of growth. Actual unemployment and the fear over further job losses (especially given the government's plan to shrink the public sector) will keep household spending weak and prevent economic growth from hitting the 9% growth rates recorded at the peak of the previous cycle, especially given the recent VAT hike, from 19% to 25%. While the IMF has allowed Romania to target a larger fiscal deficit this year (6.8% of GDP, rather than 5.9% originally stipulated), this may prove insufficient leeway, with significant risks of delay over the disbursement of outstanding loan tranches. Thus, while fiscal consolidation will further weaken the economy over the medium term, a failure to implement new austerity measures would risk suspension of the IMF loan program, which in turn would lead to deterioration in foreign investment climate and result in Romania being further sidelined by multinationals looking to expand in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE).

BMI Industry View

SWOT Analysis
Romania Food Industry SWOT
Romania Drink Industry SWOT
Romania Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT

Business Environment
BMI’s Core Global Industry Views
Table: BMI Food & Drink Core Views
Emerging Europe Food And Drink Business Environment Ratings
Table: Emerging Europe Food And Drink Business Environment Ratings Q4 2010
Romania’s Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Romania – Economic Activity

Industry Forecast Scenario
Romania’s Consumer Outlook
Food
Food Consumption
Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts
Confectionery
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
Canned Food
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
Trade
Table: Food, Drink and Tobacco Trade Indicators – Historical Data and Forecasts (US$mn)
Drink
Alcoholic Drinks
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
Soft Drinks
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
Hot Drinks
Table: Hot Drink Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Value Sales by Format – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format – Historical Data and Forecasts

Food
Industry Developments
Market Overview
Food Consumption
Food Production
Leading Players
Meat Processing Industry
Confectionery
Canned Food
Trade
Agriculture
Dairy Industry
Organic Farming

Drink
Industry Developments
Market Overview
Alcoholic Drinks
Beer
Wine
Spirits
Soft Drinks
Hot Drinks

Mass Grocery Retail
Industry Developments
Market Overview
Leading Retailers
Table: Structure of Romania's Mass Grocery Retail Sector by Estimated Number of Outlets
Table: Structure of Romania's Mass Grocery Retail Sector – Estimated Sales Value by Format
Table: Structure of Romania's Mass Grocery Retail Sector – Average Sales Value per Retail Outlet – 2009

Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Players in Romania's Food & Drinks Sector, 2009
Table: Key Players in Romania's Mass Retail Grocery Sector (2009)

Company Analysis
Food
Kandia-Excelent
Vel Pitar
Nestlé Romania
Drink
Quadrant Amroq Beverages SA (QAB)/Pepsi Americas Romania
Brau Union Romania (Heineken)
SABMiller Romania
InBev Romania (CVC Capital Partners)
Mass Grocery Retail
Metro Cash & Carry Romania
Rewe Romania
Hiparlo/Carrefour
Delhaize
Auchan

BMI Methodology
Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings
Table: Rewards
Table: Risks
Weighting
Table: Weighting
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary
Food & Drink
Mass Grocery Retail
BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sourcing

- Kandia-Excelent

- Vel Pitar

- Nestlé Romania

- Quadrant Amroq Beverages SA (QAB)/Pepsi Americas Romania

- Brau Union Romania (Heineken)

- SABMiller Romania

- InBev Romania (CVC Capital Partners)

- Metro Cash & Carry Romania

- Rewe Romania

- Hiparlo/Carrefour

- Delhaize

- Auchan

Product Samples

A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.

Customers who bought this item also bought

• The Future of the Health and Beauty Packaging Market in Romania to 2017
• Strategic Opportunities in the Romanian Waste Management Market
• The Future of the Household Care Packaging Market in Romania to 2017
• Home and Garden Products Retailing in Romania: Databook to 2016
• The Future of the Home Improvement Packaging Market in Romania to 2017
• Electricals and Electronics Retailing in Romania: Databook to 2016
• Furniture and Floor Coverings Retailing in Romania: Databook to 2016
• Male Shaving Aftercare Market in Romania to 2014 (Male Toiletries)
• Male Razors and Blades Market in Romania to 2014 (Male Toiletries)
• Male Shaving Preparations Market in Romania to 2014 (Male Toiletries)