Germany Infrastructure Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, September 2010, Pages: 74
The Germany Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, infrastructure associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Germany's infrastructure industry.
Construction and infrastructure forecasts were revised down this quarter despite strong Q210 GDP figures. This is in light of our view that the Q2 robust economic growth is not sustainable and our expectation that the weakness recorded in construction in the first quarter could offset the possible gains made in Q2. Our new forecasts for the construction industry value show moderate growth of 1.13% for 2010 and 2.3% in 2011. Accordingly, industry value is forecast to be EUR99bn and EUR103.3bn in 2010 and 2011 respectively, down from our previous forecast of EUR102bn in 2010 and EUR107bn in 2011.
Key developments that contributed to forecasts include:
- Railway development was the major project news this quarter. Deutche Bahn announced plans to invest EUR41bn in capital expenditure on its transport network over the next four years. Around 75% of the amount into rail network and station modernisation the remaining 25% of funds will be put toward acquiring new trains. The company also announced it had signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Swiss Federal Railways (SBB) to develop a railway link, connecting Switzerland and Germany. SBB has agreed to invest CHF1bn (US$945mn) in the rail link, which is likely to become operational by the end of 2014.
- BMI forecasts indicate that infrastructure will account for almost 30% of the total construction sector and gain ground in the coming years as the residential and non-residential building activity stagnates.
- Delays were announced for upgrade work to Berlin-Brandenburg International Airport, as larger security zones must be built in compliance with new EU safety regulations. The airport is now scheduled to be opened on June 3 2012, rather than October 30 2011 as planned. Extra investment of EUR50mn (US$61mn) will be made to upgrade the terminal – this will include the installation of 32 security lines to handle 4,500 passengers and the construction of two pavilions. There will be 36 security screening lines from 2013.
We forecast that Infrastructure industry value is forecast to reach nearly EUR30bn in 2010 and to rise to EUR33bn in 2011 – a real growth of 11%, down from our previous forecast of 18% real growth in 2011. The bullish scenario specifically for the infrastructure sector is based on the German index for orders received in civil engineering, which indicates that orders have been in the black (albeit erratically) in H1 2009 and beginning of 2010. This means growing orderbooks for the industry, which will translate into new activity in the coming months.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Germany Infrastructure SWOT
Germany Infrastructure Project Finance SWOT
Germany Economic SWOT
Germany Political SWOT
Market Overview
Germany
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Germany Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
Transport Infrastructure
Table: Germany Transport And Infrastructure Industry Data
Transport Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
Transport Infrastructure Overview
Major Projects – New And Ongoing Projects
Airports
Railways
Major Projects Table – Transport
Table: Major Infrastructure Projects – Transport
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure
Table: German Energy & Utilities And Infrastructure Industry Data
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Overview
Major Projects – New And Ongoing Projects
Power Plants
Oil And Gas Pipelines
Major Projects Table – Energy And Utilities
Table: Major Infrastructure Projects – Energy & Utilities
Business Environment
Germany Business Environment
Rewards
Risks
Regional Overview
Developed States Infrastructure Business Environment Ratings
Table: Developed States Infrastructure Business Environment Ratings
Project Finance Ratings
Germany Project Finance Ratings
Design and Construction
Commissioning And Operating
Overall Project Finance Rating
Regional Overview
Project Finance Ratings: Outlook For Developed States
Table: Design And Construction Rating
Table: Commissioning And Operating Rating
Table: Overall Project Finance Rating
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Germany – GDP By Expenditure
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics I
Domestic Politics II
Company Monitor
Hochtief
RWE
Bilfinger Berger
Global Overview
Core Views
BMI's Core Views For Infrastructure Sector
Methodology
New Infrastructure Data Sub-sectors: Methodology
Infrastructure Forecasts: Methodology
Sources
Industry Forecasts
Construction Industry
Data Methodology
Construction
Capital Investment
Construction Sector Employment
Infrastructure Business Environment Rating
Table: Infrastructure Business Environment Indicators
Project Finance Ratings
Table: Design And Construction Phase
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase – Commercial Construction
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase – Energy And Utilities
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase – Transport
Sources
- Hochtief
- RWE
- Bilfinger Berger
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